J. Michael Andresen

11. Events (December) Pick an interesting low-frequency event that might happen sometime this year. Each of these is listed in a contract on Intrade.com. They are each trading in the 5 – 15% range, many with very high uncertainty. What rare event will happen in 2011? a. The US conducts an overt military action against North Korea. b. China conducts an overt military action against Taiwan. c. Japan announces it has acquired a nuclear weapon. d. Iran conducts a nuclear weapons test. e. Osama bin Laden is captured or neutralized. f. An internationally recognized Palestinian state is established. g. The United Kingdom announces its intention to join the euro. h. Any country announces its intention to drop the euro. i. The US establishes a cap-and-trade system for emissions. j. BP files for bankruptcy in the US. k. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs. l. Higgs-Boson particle is observed to a confidence of five sigma. After a more thorough analysis of the seismograph data, the US Geological Su...

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture? a. The Social Network b. The King's Speech c. True Grit d. 127 Hours e. Inception f. none of the above: some other film will win The film about overcoming adversity had to overcome adversity to best the late favorite The Social Network for American filmdom's top prize. The answer to Question 5 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz and the winner of the 2011 Academy Award for best picture is b. The King's Speech . Sixteen contestants guessed this correctly, besting the seventeen who found Mark Zuckerberg's tale more compelling than King George VI's and also the twenty who took a flier on an underdog in the form of answers C, D, E, or F. The Oscar V-V-Victors: Ekrem Valerie Marcus Lorraine Chris M. Zoe Ron Cherie Sarah Jo Cameron M. Rachel F. Katie Claire&Craig Ellen Adrian Leader Board Ekrem has stunned the competition with his third point out of five questions. After three years, his "spell something" stra...