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2009 Prognostication Quiz: Question 12 of 14, Storms


Hurricane season has ended. Only Bill, Fred, and Ida made it to hurricane status this year, which means that the answer to Question 12 of the 2009 Prognostication Quiz is A. 5 or less. As I wrote last time, this has been a foregone conclusion for some time.

More interesting now is the latest on the last questions 13 (Stocks) and 14 (Snow). November has seen a continued rally in the Dow, pushing the average over the 10,000 point mark. If it dips back down below 10,000, Ted will win. If it stays above 10,000 then things become interesting. In that case, Ted and Matthew will be tied at 7 points while Larry will have 6. Here is the key Question 14:

How much snow will fall in Minnesota?
a. Fewer than 34 inches
b. 34 to 42.9 inches
c. 43 to 48.9 inches
d. 49 to 57.9 inches
e. 58 to 69.9 inches
f. 70 inches or more

The tiebreaking question is also based on Question 14, asking for a precise number of inches of snowfall. Ted guessed E with a tiebreak of 59.0 inches. Larry guessed D with a tiebreak of 56.5 inches. Matthew guessed C with a tiebreak of 47.3 inches.

Matthew is elated that Minneapolis got NO SNOW AT ALL in November. This is highly unusual: the average snowfall is 7.4 inches for the month.

The total snowfall to date is 26.1 inches. (Average snowfall January to November is 41.5 inches.) Since the area is so far below average snowfall, Matthew is sitting pretty, as he has the lowest guess on the snow.

This all presumes that the Dow stays above 10,000:

Matthew will win if the total snowfall is 49 inches or less. That means he needs 22.8 inches of snowfall or less in December. In the past 124 Decembers, that has happened 94% of the time.

Larry will win if the total snowfall is between 49 and 57.7 inches. That means he needs between 22.9 and 31.6 inches of snow in December, a 5% chance.

Ted will win if the yearly snowfall is 57.8 inches or higher, which would be at least 31.7 inches in December. That has happened just once in the past 124 years (in 1970). Realistically, Ted needs the Dow to get back below 10,000 in order to win.

Full Leaderboard

I have had a request for a full leader board. Here it is, with two questions remaining, sorted descending by score and ascending by tiebreak:

Score Name
7 Ted
6 Matthew
6 Zoe
6 Pete C.
5 Larry
5 Stephanie
5 Ben
4 Ekrem
4 Michael
4 Tina
4 Grant
4 Katie
4 Missy
4 Kevin
4 Jan
4 Adrian
4 Leanne
3 Ana
3 Zhiqi
3 Jeff B.
3 Gloria
3 Heather
3 Ellen
3 Pamela
3 Liz
3 Peter M.
3 Marcus
3 Cameron
3 Sarah
3 Jeremiah
2 Greg
2 Beth
2 Megan
2 Russell
2 Rachel F.
2 Eric
2 Rob
1 Valerie
1 Janet
1 Ryan
1 Janette
1 Jeff C.
0 Rachel H.

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