J. Michael Andresen

Welcome to a new year of prognostication! We have 51 entrants this year, up from 45 last year, thanks in large measure to my high school friend Jeffrey T., who is an opera singer and English instructor living in Japan. He made the 2014 Prognostication Quiz mandatory reading for the seven students in his graduate course for Chinese exchange students on current events in American culture. A warm welcome to Yue Nan, Xing Yue, Zhangying, Xiaoqi, Bao Bin, Hexiang, and Ling Chen! 1. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2013 report calculated that 90 of the world’s 195 nations were “free” in 2012. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2013? Note: the twelve worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, El Salvad...

11. Stocks The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 12,900. How will the Dow end up after what could be a wild and crazy 2013, with a fiscal cliff, a euro crisis, and a new Premier in China? What will be the year-end close for the Dow? a. under 12,000 b. 12,000 to 12,800 c. 12,800 to 13,600 d. 13,600 to 14,300 e. 14,300 to 15,000 f. greater than 15,000 It was indeed a wild year for American securities. Major stock indices rose 25 - 30%, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose from 13,104.14 to 16,576.66, an increase of 26.5%. This means the answer to Question 11 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is F . Only two people guessed F : Sarah T. and Melissa, and only Sarah T. actually thought the Dow would rise so much. Melissa predicted the Dow would stay lower, but she was trying to get the lowest score in the Quiz and picked F in order to have what she thought was the best chance at missing. In a year of crazy underdo...

13-15. Death (All Year) Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2013?  A surprise death yesterday! Mikhail Kalishnikov, inventor of the world's most popular assault rifle, passed away yesterday at the age of 94. This makes K the fifth correct answer this year to Questions 13 - 15 in the 2013 Prognostication Quiz . The AK-47's Matthew Sarah M. Michael Stephanie Nadir Leaderboard This causes a dramatic last-minute shake-up in the Quiz leaderboard. Matthew, Sarah. M., and myself each gain our fourth point to tie Liz, Chris C., Larry, and Pete C. at the top with 4 points. With the most optimistic view of stocks this year, though, Matthew takes over first place with the tiebreaker included. He topples Liz, who has had a stranglehold on the top spot since April. Liz is now in second place and will need a Christmas week miracle to reclaim the top spot. 4 Matthew 4 Liz 4 Sarah M. 4 Chris C. 4 Michael 4 Larry 4 Pete C. 3 Jeff 3 Marcus 3 Rachel F. 3 Ru...