2015 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 4 & 5, Nigeria & Film

4. Nigeria

Elections in Africa's most populous nation are often a fraught affair. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has dominated politics in Nigeria since democracy was established in 1999. Incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, from predominantly Christian and prosperous southern Nigeria, will run on the PDP ticket and is probably the favorite to win. The PDP will face its stiffest challenge since 1999, however, as the opposition parties have joined together under a coalition banner, the All Progressives Congress (APC). The APC chose as its candidate Muhammadu Buhari, who was military dictator of Nigeria from 1983 to 1985 and comes from predominantly Muslim and poorer northern Nigeria. Jonathan and Buhari also faced off in the 2011 election, which left over 800 people dead after rampant sectarian violence.

Who will win Nigeria's Presidential election?
a. Goodluck Jonathan 
b. Muhammadu Buhari 
c. Another candidate will win
d. No one: the election will be canceled or postponed past 2015

Surprising a large number of international observers and an even larger number of Quiz entrants, Nigeria has managed a peaceful transfer of power. The People's Democratic Party had been in power since Nigeria established a democracy in 1999, but it has peacefully transferred power to the opposition All Progressives Congress. Current President Goodluck Jonathan likely could have held on to power by meddling with the election, but he chose instead to let the election happen without interference, and has conceded defeat to answer Question 4 of the 2015 Prognostication Quiz with B. Muhammadu Buhari.

This mirrors one of my favorite episodes in US History. The Federalists had been in power since establishing a democracy in 1788, and John Adams likely could have held on to power despite losing the election of 1800, but instead he transferred power peacefully to Thomas Jefferson and his Republicans, setting an important precedent of peaceful transfer of power that has been followed pretty much without fuss every since.

Nine Quiz entrants picked this upset, disappointing the cynical 27 who thought that picking the incumbent party in an African election is never the wrong move.

The Progressives

Ron D.

Janet C.

Zhiqi Q.

Nicole C.

Miriam S.

Nadir Y.

Sarah S.

Larry A.

Jenny A.

5. Film (March 2)
Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year at the Academy Awards? These are the five nominees for the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture, which usually contains the best picture for the Academy, as well.

What will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
a. Boyhood
b. Foxcatcher
c. The Imitation Game
d. Selma
e. The Theory of Everything
f. None of the above: another picture will win 

At the start of the year, Boyhood may have been the front-runner to win Best Picture Oscar. In the Quiz, 15 contestants also picked it to win, tying it with The Theory of Everything for most popular answer. But the irritatingly titled Birdman: Or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) launched a last-minute campaign among Academy voters to achieve victory on Oscar night. This means the correct answer to Question 5 is F. None of the above.

This may have been an even bigger upset than the one in Nigeria. Only four intrepid Quiz entrants thought this was worth betting on, but they have reaped their reward.

 The Birdlovers

Gloria T.

Missy A.

Megan T.

Jeff C.

Leaderboard

Congratulations to new girl-power co-leader tandem of Gloria T. and Janet C.! They picked an upset apiece to stay in first place this month, eclipsing Stephanie A. who went with the favorites for Questions 4 and 5. She drops down to be one of the five contestants (including four more women) who are just a point back and are very eager to claw Gloria and Janet back down to size.

Next up is the Pulitzer Prizes, where the top six are all hoping for B. The New York Times. Maverick Megan T. is the lone wolf among the top 7 with her choice of A. The Washington Post.

Rank	Score	Name
1	4	Gloria T.
2	4	Janet C.
3	3	Stephanie A.
4	3	Zhiqi Q.
5	3	Ron D.
6	3	Missy A.
7	3	Megan T.
8	2	Jeff C.
9	2	Dave S.
10	2	Chris C.
11	2	Ellen Y.
12	2	Marcus S.
13	2	Dawn K.
14	2	Michael A.
15	2	Valerie M.
16	2	Russell V.
17	2	Nicole C.
18	2	Peter B.
19	2	Rachel H.
20	2	Miriam S.
21	1	Keila B.
22	1	Mary A.
23	1	Eric M.
24	1	Stacey C.
25	1	Matthew D.
26	1	Kevin K.
27	1	Jeff T.
28	1	Ekrem S.
29	1	Sarah M.
30	1	Pamela C.
31	1	Cameron M.
32	1	Adam K.
33	1	Grant M.
34	1	Nadir Y.
35	1	Chris M.
36	1	Ben S.
37	1	Larry A.
38	1	Sarah T.
39	1	Jan M.
40	1	Sarah S.
41	1	Rachel F.
42	1	Jenny A.
43	0	Jason C.
44	0	Todd C.

We are down to just two who are the embarrassment of the Quiz with no points scored yet. Intriguingly, they are also one of our sibling rivalries. Right now Jason has bragging rights over Todd on the slimmest of margins in the tie breaking procedure. (Todd is beating his brother at a mere 75 points away from the current Dow Jones listing, but Jason wins on account of being closer on the Bitcoin question.) Laughing heartily at these two sad siblings (ranked #43 and #44) are their parents, Janet (#2) and Jeff (#8). It will be a tough road to for Jason and Todd to try to eclipse their wiser forebears, but the more modest goal of getting out of the basement may be more feasible.