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1. Freedom (January)
Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many countries it calculates to be free, partly free, or not free. The 2014 report calculated that 88 of the world’s 195 nations were free in 2013. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2014? Note: the nine worst free countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Jamaica, Lesotho, Montenegro, and Peru. The sixteen best partly free countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Georgia, Indonesia, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Philippines, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania. The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (4), 86 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 87 total
c. no change (6), 88 total
d. plus one (4), 89 total
e. plus two or three (3), 90 - 91 total
f. plus four or more (3), 92 or more total
2. Football (February 1)
The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all this year or will an upstart prevail? Recent history has seen a proliferation of successful upstarts. In the NFL playoffs between 1995 to 2004, #1 seeds won 6 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won 2. In the NFL playoffs from 2005 to 2014, #1 seeds won only 2 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won an astonishing 6. What will happen this year? Regular season wins and losses are indicated in parentheses.Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC
b. #1 seed in the NFC
c. #2 seed in the AFC
d. #2 seed in the NFC
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team
3. Groundhog (February 2)
Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow (which he did last year), it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each since the release of the movie Groundhog Day is indicated in parentheses.What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (15)
b. No shadow (6)
4. Nigeria (February 14)
Elections in Africa's most populous nation are often a fraught affair. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has dominated politics in Nigeria since democracy was established in 1999. Incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, from predominantly Christian and prosperous southern Nigeria, will run on the PDP ticket and is probably the favorite to win. The PDP will face its stiffest challenge since 1999, however, as the opposition parties have joined together under a coalition banner, the All Progressives Congress (APC). The APC chose as its candidate Muhammadu Buhari, who was military dictator of Nigeria from 1983 to 1985 and comes from predominantly Muslim and poorer northern Nigeria. Jonathan and Buhari also faced off in the 2011 election, which left over 800 people dead after rampant sectarian violence.Who will win Nigeria's Presidential election?
a. Goodluck Jonathan
b. Muhammadu Buhari
c. Another candidate will win
d. No one: the election will be canceled or postponed past 2015
5. Film (March 2)
Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year at the Academy Awards? These are the five nominees for the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture, which usually contains the best picture for the Academy, as well.What will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
a. Boyhood
b. Foxcatcher
c. The Imitation Game
d. Selma
e. The Theory of Everything
f. None of the above: another picture will win
6. Writing (April 15)
Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the news organization as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the news organization is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The number of times each has won in this century is listed in parentheses (ties are possible).Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post (5)
b. The New York Times (7)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (5)
e. another news organization will be named the most times (0)
7. Rings (July 14)
The New Horizons spacecraft (launched in 2006) will fly by distant Pluto on July 14, giving us our closest view ever of the erstwhile planet. One basic fact about Pluto that scientists do not know based on the current best images (from the Hubble Space Telescope) is whether Pluto has one or more rings like its outer solar system cousins, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune.Does Pluto have rings?
a. Yes
b. No
c. There's something there but it is hard to classify it as a proper ring
d. New Horizons will not survive the flyby or will not collect enough data to conclude
8. Moons (July 14)
We know of five moons orbiting Pluto: Charon (1207 km mean diameter), Hydra (~114 km), Nix (~91 km), Kerberos (~24 km), and Styx (~18 km). How many total moons (of at least 1 km mean diameter) will we have found orbiting Pluto by the end of 2015? For comparison, Uranus has 27 moons and Neptune has 13 moons. Note that the current 5 known moons will make A the correct answer if New Horizons does not survive the flyby. (Some people fret that it will be too dusty around Pluto for the satellite to survive very long.)How many moons will we have found orbiting Pluto?
a. 10 or fewer
b. 11 - 15
c. 16 - 20
d. 21 - 25
e. 26- 30
f. 31- 35
g. 36- 40
h. 41- 45
i. 46- 50
k. More than 50
9. Storms (November 30)
Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were six hurricanes in 2014, a paltry two in 2013, ten in 2012, seven in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, and an all-time record fifteen in 2005.How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-10
e. 11-12
f. 13 or more
10. Vetoes (December 31)
In his first six years of his Presidency, Barack Obama has vetoed precisely two bills. How will that change in the upcoming 114th Congress, with Republican majorities in both houses? Up to now, Obama has not had to deal with most bills passed by the Republican House because the Democratic Senate did not bring them to a vote. Will Senate Democrats filibuster bills that come for a vote in the Senate after passing the House, or will they simply let the President veto them? The all-time record for a single Congressional term is Grover Cleveland's 212 vetoes in the 50th U.S. Congress (1887 - 1889). Can Barack reach triple digits in the first year of his attempt to break Grover's record?How many vetoes will Obama make in 2015?
a. 20 or fewer
b. 21 - 40
c. 41 - 60
d. 61 - 80
e. 81 - 100
f. over 100
11. Stocks (December 31)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index had an good year in 2014, rising by 8%, after a 25% rise the year before. It is currently at around 17,900. Will the Dow continue climbing in 2015, or are we in line for a market correction?What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 16,000
b. 16,000 to 16,800
c. 16,800 to 17,600
d. 17,600 to 18,300
e. 18,300 to 19,000
f. greater than 19,000
12. Bitcoin (December 31)
Bitcoin is a fledgling digital currency that has made headlines the past two years for its novelty and for its volatility. At the end of 2010, one bitcoin cost 30 cents. That rose to $5 by the end of 2011 and $13 by the end of 2012 before skyrocketing to $817 by the end of 2013. In 2014 the price has crashed to its current level around $320. Will the price of a bitcoin continue to collapse? Or will 2015 see a turnaround? Optimists say that it's only a matter of time before Bitcoin becomes the dominant world currency. Naysayers think that the anonymous transfer technology is interesting but that the currency itself is rather pointless.How much will one bitcoin be worth at the end of 2015?
a. Under $100
b. $100 - $200
c. $200 - $300
d. $300 - $400
e. $400 - $500
f. $500 - $600
g. over $600
13-15. Death (All Year)
Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2014? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through V managed to survive last year's quiz, while W through Z are newcomers to our dance of death. (The current year's birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that a 90-year-old has an 86% chance of surviving the year while a 98-year-old has a 75% chance of seeing 2016. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!Who will not survive 2014?
a. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (99)
b. Kirk Douglas, Hollywood Legend (99)
c. Zsa Zsa Gabor, Actress and Amputee (98)
d. I. M. Pei, MIT-trained Architect (98)
e. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (97)
f. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (97)
g. Helmut Schmidt, former West German Chancellor (97)
h. Joseph Wapner, The People's Court Judge (96)
i. Henry Heimlich, you know his maneuver (95)
j. John Paul Stevens, former US Supreme Court Justice (95)
k. George Shultz, former US Secretary of State (95)
l. Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth (94)
m. Nancy Reagan, former US First Lady (94)
n. John Glenn, former Astronaut and US Senator (94)
o. Luis Echeverría Álvarez, former President of Mexico (93)
p. Betty White, Comedic Actress (93)
q. Doris Day, Movie Icon (93)
r. Chuck Yeager, Test Pilot (92)
s. Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State (92)
t. Bob Dole, former US Senator (92)
u. Shimon Peres, former Israeli Prime Minister (92)
v. Bob Barker, Price is Right Host (92)
w. Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe (91)
x. George Bush, former US President (91)
y. Jimmy Carter, former US President (91)
z. Lee Iacocca, automobile executive (91)
For a tie-breaker: Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________
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