J. Michael Andresen

Welcome to a new year of prognostication! We have 51 entrants this year, up from 45 last year, thanks in large measure to my high school friend Jeffrey T., who is an opera singer and English instructor living in Japan. He made the 2014 Prognostication Quiz mandatory reading for the seven students in his graduate course for Chinese exchange students on current events in American culture. A warm welcome to Yue Nan, Xing Yue, Zhangying, Xiaoqi, Bao Bin, Hexiang, and Ling Chen! 1. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2013 report calculated that 90 of the world’s 195 nations were “free” in 2012. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2013? Note: the twelve worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, El Salvad

11. Stocks The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 12,900. How will the Dow end up after what could be a wild and crazy 2013, with a fiscal cliff, a euro crisis, and a new Premier in China? What will be the year-end close for the Dow? a. under 12,000 b. 12,000 to 12,800 c. 12,800 to 13,600 d. 13,600 to 14,300 e. 14,300 to 15,000 f. greater than 15,000 It was indeed a wild year for American securities. Major stock indices rose 25 - 30%, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose from 13,104.14 to 16,576.66, an increase of 26.5%. This means the answer to Question 11 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is F . Only two people guessed F : Sarah T. and Melissa, and only Sarah T. actually thought the Dow would rise so much. Melissa predicted the Dow would stay lower, but she was trying to get the lowest score in the Quiz and picked F in order to have what she thought was the best chance at missing. In a year of crazy underdogs, Melissa ended u