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2012 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 9 and 10, POTUS and Storms

9. POTUS (November)

Who will be elected President of the United States?
a. Barack Obama
b. The Republican Nominee
c. a dark horse (anyone else)

After hundreds of millions of dollars spent, Barack Obama won a convincing victory in the U.S. Presidential Election earlier this month. Eighty percent of Quiz entrants picked him to win reeelection. Those who picked the underdog had very reasonable odds for their bets (very few thought that Obama's actual chances were that high, even at the very end), but they lost anyway.

The Obamaniacs:

Keila
Megan
Cameron
Kevin
Grant
Marcus
Ellen
Stacey
Gloria
Todd
Sarah M.
Peter B.
Ryan
Nadir
Russell
Sarah T.
Zoe
Janet
Jason
Cherie
Michael
Ben
Leanne
Pete C.
Ekrem
Chris C.
Rachel
Collette
Katie
Jeff
Adrian
Beth
Eric
Jan
Craig
Hannah
Liz
Dave
Ted
Valerie
Paul



10. Storms (November)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were seven hurricanes in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, and nine in 2004. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the past 12 years)? An El nino event is possible this year, which could mean extra hurricanes.

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?

a. 3 or less
b. 4-5
c. 6-7
d. 8-9
e. 10-12
f. 13 or more

No El nino this year, but plenty of extra hurricanes, anyway. We had 10 Atlantic hurricanes this year: Chris, Ernesto, Gordon, Isaac, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Rafael, and (of course) Sandy. Hurrican Sandy (pictured above) moved us from answer D to answer E, benefitting those who were bullish on hurricanes this year. In particular, Kevin, Russell, Ellen, and Sarah M. have pushed their way up to having a very good chance of winning the entire quiz (see below).

The Sandy apologists:
Kevin
Russell
Sarah M.
Ellen
Ben
Chris C.
Adrian
Miriam
Valerie
Chris M.
Paul

Leaderboard

Congratulations to Kevin, who has answered the last four questions correctly to claw his way up to the four-way tie at the top of the leaderboard along with Keila, Megan, and Cameron. Condolences to Mary, who drops back into the second tier after guessing that a Republican would regain the White House.

7 Keila
7 Megan
7 Cameron
7 Kevin
6 Russell
6 Grant
6 Marcus
6 Ellen
6 Sarah M.
6 Stacey
6 Gloria
6 Ben
6 Todd
6 Mary
5 Adrian
5 Zoe
5 Nadir
5 Chris C.
5 Janet
5 Peter B.
5 Jason
5 Ryan
5 Peter M.
5 Michael
5 Sarah T.
5 Leanne
5 Miriam
5 Cherie
5 Pete C.
5 Ekrem
4 Jeff
4 Beth
4 Katie
4 Rachel
4 Collette
4 Eric
4 Chris M.
4 Jan
4 Craig
4 Valerie
4 Hannah
4 Tom
4 Liz
4 Matthew
3 Dave
3 Paul
3 Ted
2 Zhiqi
2 Missy
2 Tina
1 Larry

Question 12: Stocks

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?

a. under 10,800
b. 10,800 to 11,600
c. 11,600 to 12,400
d. 12,400 to 13,200
e. 13,200 to 14,000
f. greater than 14,000

The Dow Jones Industrial Index has recently been moving back and forth between D and E, but the progress (or lack thereof) for the "fiscal cliff" negotiations could push it higher or lower. Assuming that no more deaths or interesting events take place, we have a total of seven who could win this year's quiz.


Of the four at the top of the leaderboard, Keila, Megan, and Cameron answered D. Kevin answered C. Kevin is therefore hoping that our nation's lawmakers decide to plunge off the fiscal cliff, since he will win the quiz if the Dow finishes anywhere in answer C territory. Keila, Megan, and Cameron carve up answer D based on their tie-break answers.

Of the ten competitors who are one point off of the lead, only those who did not answer C or D have a shot at winning. Kudos to Russell, Ellen, and Sarah M. who gave themselves a serious shot at winning by picking E. These three carve up answer E territory.

No one at or near the top picked A, B, C, or F, so the current leaders split that territory, as well. Kevin picked the lowest tie-break and will win answers A, B, or C. Keila picked the highest tie-break and will win if the Dow finishes in answer F.

Kevin wins with the Dow anywhere under 12,400
Cameron wins between 12,400 and 12,884
Megan wins between 12,884 and 13,050
Keila wins between 13,050 and 13,200 OR over 14,000
Russell wins between 13,200 and 13,296
Ellen wins between 13,297 and 13,344
Sarah M. wins between 13,344 and 14,000

If another death or interesting event occur, though, all calculations are off! Stay tuned for an exciting finish!

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