J. Michael Andresen

1. Quiz What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz? Here are this year's answers, with last year's answers in parentheses: a. 11 (7) b. 8 (4) c. 7 (8) d. 13 (7) e. 4 (15) f. 8 (10) The answer to the kick-off question of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is E . Only four people chose it out of the 51 entrants we have this year. The E Street Band : Ellen Keila Grant Kevin People avoided last year's most popular answer, making reverse psychology the big winner over reverse-reverse psychology. (Recall that straight up psychology may have led to the popular choice of E last year .) None of the four winners had a compelling explanation for why E might have worked better than the rest. Ellen's strategy was to pick her initials E and A for all the questions, and she followed a hunch about E here. Grant utilized optimal game theory strategy and used a random number generator to select the correct answer. Keila and Kevin perhaps deserve ...

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 14, 2012 . Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com. Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter! 1. Quiz (January) A repeat of last year’s Question 1 with the added twist that we now know last year’s answers. Will reverse psychology prevail, or reverse-reverse psychology? The number of votes each answer received last year is in parentheses. What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz? a. A (7) b. B (4) c. C (8) d. D (7) e. E (15) f. F (10) 2. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2011 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2010, down two from the previous year. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2011? The number of times eac...

The Final Question 12. Stocks What will be the year-end close for the Dow? a. under 10,500 b. 10,500 to 11,000 c. 11,000 to 11,500 d. 11,500 to 12,000 e. 12,000 to 12,500 f. greater than 12,500 The Dow Jones index finished at 12,217.56, bringing to a close the 2011 Prognostication Quiz with a final answer of E. 12,000 to 12,500. This was the most popular answer, and mimics the long-term trend in the Dow Jones index. I hope everyone borrowed heavily and invested in stocks this year. The E people: Russell Jo Cameron M. Dave Ekrem Michael Kevin Claire&Craig Rachel F. Grant Beth Rachel H. Tina Ellen Zhiqi Janet Eric Peter B. Chris C. Nadir Leader Board The point for Russell pulls him into a tie with Marcus for first place with seven points. After the tie-breaker, however, Marcus wins by a neck. Here is the final listing with the tie-break incorporated: 1. Marcus (7) 2. Russell (7) 3. Jo (6) 4. Cameron M. (5) 5. Dave (5) 6. Ryan (5) 7. Paul (5) 8. Megan (5) 9. Adrian (5) 10. Stacey (5)...