J. Michael Andresen

Question #2: Freedom How will the number of free countries change? (Total who answered each is in parentheses.) a. minus two or worse, 87 or fewer total (6) b. minus one, 88 total (13) c. no change, 89 total (12) d. plus one, 90 total (13) e. plus two or three, 91-92 total (4) f. plus four or more, 93 or more total (3) The number crunchers over at Freedom House tell us it has been a bad year for freedom again this year. A total of 25 countries saw a decline in freedom level compared to 11 countries that improved. Included in the declining countries are Mexico and Ukraine. They were "free" in 2009, but were only "partly free" last year. That means that the total number of free countries decreased by two, leaving just 87 free countries in the world and making a. minus two or worse the answer to Question #2 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz . Ukraine suffered due to the maneuvers of President Viktor Yanukovych to crack down on the press, rig elections, and politicize

Here again is Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz , with the number of times each answer was chosen in parentheses (also see pie chart above): What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz? a. A (7) b. B (4) c. C (8) d. D (7) e. E (15) f. F (10) The winning answer is therefore b. B . Congratulations to Marcus, Russell, Paul, and Ekrem for outsmarting the field on that one. Marcus was influenced by a key game theory scene from a popular historical dramatic film: "I rolled a six sided die for this one: I decided a 1 in 6 chance was better than trying to follow any set of logical instincts, in the theory that more than 1 in 6 of my friends might think like I do. After all, they've all seen the Princess Bride too." This is a useful approach, since it eliminates any undue sway of underlying psychology and gives a true one-in-six chance at hitting pay dirt. Russell plunged in and dared to guess at the underlying psychology in ord

Question 12: Stocks The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year at 11,577.51. We started the year at 10,428, so the Dow has gained 11% as the economy has clawed its way out of recession. That means that the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is over. The answer to Question 12 (What will be the year-end close for the Dow?) is F. Greater than 11,500 . The Super-Bulls: Ryan Gloria Marcus Ellen Grant Cherie Rachel F. Jeff Peter Ellen was the closest of all with her tie-break prediction that the Dow would end at 11,543 (off by 34.5 points). Rachel F. was second with her guess of 11,521 (off by 56.5 points). On the other end of the spectrum, Janette visualized a doomsday scenario where all thirty components of the Dow simultaneously went belly-up on December 31, plunging the index to zero. Either that or she just forgot to submit a tie-break answer. Ryan correctly predicted that the Dow would have a banner year. With his correct stocks prediction, Ryan joins Ron again at the top of the leader b