J. Michael Andresen

9-month-old Calvin and 2.75-year-old Maxwell

2012-02-08T20:00:00.008-06:00

(Guest post by Katie)

Calvin

Calvin is an extraordinarily happy and agreeable baby. When Mommy comes downstairs in the morning (Daddy gets up first with the boys) or comes home from work, Calvin grins and flaps his arms excitedly. He used to clap, but the clapping could not be as enthusiastic as the flapping.

For a while now, whenever Calvin started to fuss, it meant he was hungry or sleepy. Now, he is often fussing instead because he wants a particular toy, and usually a toy that Max is sequestering.

Max

Max has been becoming very communicative and expressing lots of ideas as of late, though we don’t always know where the ideas that he expresses come from. “I wish Calvin had more arms, so that he could be a spider.” This was apropos of nothing, as far as we could tell.

“Then you will leave me all alone, and I will cry.” This matter-of-fact declaration by Maxwell followed Daddy’s explanation of the series of events that would take place before bed: First, we will brush your teeth; then, we will change your diaper; then, we will read one-two-three books. We have recently modified our bedtime routine as follows. Old routine: a half hour of books with Mommy and then a half hour of Daddy sitting with Max in the dark until Max falls asleep. New routine: a half hour of books with Mommy or Daddy and then tucking Max in and leaving his room for him to fall asleep on his own.

“Don’t kiss me, Mommy! You are Calvin’s favorite.” Max has recently declared that Daddy is his favorite and Mommy is Calvin’s favorite. (And that Max is a boy (pronounced bay), Calvin is a boy, Daddy is a boy, but Mommy if a girl (ghoul).) Apparently, giving kisses is somehow messing up this schema.

2012 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 1 and 2

2012-01-18T11:25:00.013-06:00

1. Quiz

What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz? Here are this year's answers, with last year's answers in parentheses:
a. 11 (7)
b. 8 (4)
c. 7 (8)
d. 13 (7)
e. 4 (15)
f. 8 (10)

The answer to the kick-off question of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is E. Only four people chose it out of the 51 entrants we have this year.

The E Street Band:
Ellen
Keila
Grant
Kevin

People avoided last year's most popular answer, making reverse psychology the big winner over reverse-reverse psychology. (Recall that straight up psychology may have led to the popular choice of E last year.)

None of the four winners had a compelling explanation for why E might have worked better than the rest. Ellen's strategy was to pick her initials E and A for all the questions, and she followed a hunch about E here. Grant utilized optimal game theory strategy and used a random number generator to select the correct answer. Keila and Kevin perhaps deserve the most kudos on this question, since they followed their hunches about human behavior.

2. Freedom

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2011 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2010.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse, 85 or fewer total
b. minus one, 86 total
c. no change, 87 total
d. plus one, 88 total
e. plus two or three, 89-90 total
f. plus four or more, 91 or more total

According to this year's Democracy in the World report over at Freedom House, the number of free countries remained constant this year. That makes the answer of Question 2 in the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is C.

Interestingly, C. No change was the least popular answer. While 34 of the 50 entrants picked D or E, only 3 predicted that Freedom would be remain unchanged.

People were probably bullish on global freedom this year for two reasons: the Arab Spring and also the fact that two countries had already been downgraded last year. Tunisia was actually the only country to go up in status this year, but because it started the year as "not free" it only advanced to "partly free." Sadly, the Arab Spring caused an uptick in repression by some paranoid governments as well. (Grant's reasoning was a bit more involved: see his comment below.)

The noncommittals:
Tom
Zhiqi
Gloria

Leaderboard

Here are the rankings after the first two questions. Ties in the leaderboard are broken by projecting the change in the Dow to the end of the year and then using the tie-breaking procedure. Since the Dow has risen this past month, that means that ties are broken in order of people's bullishness. Congratulations, then, to new entrant Tom (also my father-in-law), who is the most bullish of the seven people with an early point.

1 Tom
1 Ellen
1 Keila
1 Grant
1 Kevin
1 Gloria
1 Zhiqi
0 Matthew
0 Cherie
0 Miriam
0 Sarah T.
0 Chris M.
0 Collette
0 Ryan
0 Peter B.
0 Sarah M.
0 Chris C.
0 Nadir
0 Rachel
0 Russell
0 Katie
0 Jeff
0 Adrian
0 Larry
0 Dave
0 Beth
0 Paul
0 Marcus
0 Megan
0 Zoe
0 Cameron
0 Janet
0 Jason
0 Peter M.
0 Ted
0 Eric
0 Michael
0 Stacey
0 Jan
0 Craig
0 Ben
0 Todd
0 Leanne
0 Missy
0 Valerie
0 Hannah
0 Liz
0 Mary
0 Pete C.
0 Ekrem
0 Tina

Question 3 Update

Now that it's down to the Patriots and the Giants, we can say more simply how the Super Bowl will affect the Leaderboard. If the Patriots win, Grant, Gloria, and Zhiqi will join a three-way tie for the lead with two points. If the Giants win, Cameron and Peter M. will gain their first point and advance to a nine-way tie for first.

2012 Prognostication Quiz

2012-01-03T09:27:00.008-06:00

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 14, 2012.
Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com.
Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter!

1. Quiz (January)

A repeat of last year’s Question 1 with the added twist that we now know last year’s answers. Will reverse psychology prevail, or reverse-reverse psychology? The number of votes each answer received last year is in parentheses.

What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz?
a. A (7)
b. B (4)
c. C (8)
d. D (7)
e. E (15)
f. F (10)

2. Freedom (January)

3. Football (February)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all or will an upstart prevail? (Regular season wins and losses are indicated.)

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the NFC (Green Bay Packers, 15-1)
b. #1 seed in the AFC (New England Patriots, 13-3)
c. #2 seed in the NFC (San Francisco 49ers, 13-3)
d. #2 seed in the AFC (Baltimore Ravens, 12-4)
e. another NFC team
f. another AFC team

4. Film (February)

Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year? The first three listed seem to be the early favorites according to my brief search.

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?
a. The Artist
b. The Descendants
c. Hugo
d. The Help
e. Midnight in Paris
f. none of the above: some other film will win

5. Writing (April)

Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 11 years are listed (ties are possible).

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post (4)
b. The New York Times (4)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (4)
e. another paper will be named the most times (0)

6. Olympics (July)

The 30th summer Olympic games take place in London this year. China won the most gold medals for the first time ever in 2008. Prior to that, the top spot had always gone to either the United States or Russia/U.S.S.R. since 1936. Will China repeat, or will a cold-war superpower regain the upper hand? The number of gold medals won in 2008 is indicated.

Who will win the most gold medals?
a. China (51)
b. United States (36)
c. Russia (23)
d. Any other country (192)

7. GOP (August)

A fractious group is competing for the nomination. Mitt Romney is most likely according to Intrade, with a 75% chance of winning. He has accumulated the most endorsements, but primary voters seem reluctant to trust him.

Who will win the Republican nomination?
a. Mitt Romney
b. Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, or Santorum
c. a dark horse (anyone else)

8. Peace (October)

For the past 22 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. Certain key words appear surprisingly frequently in this paragraph. Total appearances over the 22 years of each word below is indicated in parentheses. (More than one correct answer is possible.)

What word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize?
a. “Democracy” (5)
b. “Rights” (7)
c. Any specific geographical region (6)
d. “International” (5)
e. “Peaceful” (6)
f. None of the above (4)

9. POTUS (November)

The economy is dragging down the incumbent, but the Republicans seem to be having trouble finding a charismatic candidate. Will Obama win a second term, or will the country give a new mandate to a Republican?

Who will be elected President of the United States?
a. Barak Obama
b. the answer from Question 7
c. a dark horse (anyone else)

10. Storms (November)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were seven hurricanes in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, and nine in 2004. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the past 12 years)? An El nino event is possible this year, which could mean extra hurricanes.

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 3 or less
b. 4-5
c. 6-7
d. 8-9
e. 10-12
f. 13 or more

11. Events (December)

Pick an interesting low-frequency event that might happen sometime this year. Each of these is listed in a contract on Intrade.com. They are each trading in the 5 – 15% range, many with very high uncertainty.

What rare event will happen in 2011?
a. The US conducts an overt military action against North Korea.
b. China conducts an overt military action against Taiwan.
c. Japan announces it has acquired a nuclear weapon.
d. Cuba is removed from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list.
e. A successful WMD terrorist attack occurs anywhere.
f. The Chicago Spire is officially opened.
g. Ben Bernanke stops serving as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
h. Italy receives an EU/IMF bailout of more than €50 billion.
i. The US establishes a cap-and-trade system for emissions.
j. The Google Lunar X Prize is won.
k. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs anywhere.

12. Stocks (December)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 12,200. Will the economy continue to recover, or will the economy slip into another recession in 2012? (Intrade suggests we have a one-in-three chance of another "official" recession this year.)

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 10,800
b. 10,800 to 11,600
c. 11,600 to 12,400
d. 12,400 to 13,200
e. 13,200 to 14,000
f. greater than 14,000

13-15. Death (December)

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2012? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through V were on last year's quiz and survived to tell about it, while W through Z are fresh nonagenarian meat. (This year's birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that 90-year-old John Glenn has an 86% chance of surviving the year while 96-year-old Yizhak Shamir has a 77% chance of seeing 2013. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2012?
a. Yitzhak Shamir, Former Israeli Premier (97)
b. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (96)
c. Kirk Douglas, Spartacus Actor (96)
d. Ernest Borgnine, Marty Actor (95)
e. Zsa Zsa Gabor, police-slapping Actress (95)
f. I. M. Pei, Louvre glass pyramid Architect (95)
g. Phyllis Diller, Comedienne (95)
h. Allan Arbus, M*A*S*H Actor (94)
i. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (94)
j. Mike Wallace, 60 Minutes Journalist (94)
k. Abigail van Buren, Advice Columnist (94)
l. Nelson Mandela, S. Africa Ex-President (94)
m. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (94)
n. Helmut Schmidt, W. German Ex-Chancellor (94)
o. Mikhail Kalashnikov, AK-47 inventor (93)
p. Joseph Wapner, The People's Court Judge (93)
q. Sun Myung Moon, leader of the Moonies (92)
r. Henry Heimlich, you know his maneuver (92)
s. Ravi Shankar, The Beatles' sitar instructor (92)
t. John Paul Stevens, US Supreme Court, ret. (92)
u. Ray Bradbury, author of science fiction (92)
v. Mickey Rooney, Boys Town Actor (92)
w. George Shultz, former Secretary of State (92)
x. Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth (91)
y. Nancy Reagan, former First Lady (91)
z. John Glenn, former astronaut & Senator (91)

For a tie-breaker: Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________

Name:___________________________________

e-mail:___________________________________

2011 Prognostication Quiz: Winner!

2012-01-03T09:26:00.011-06:00

The Final Question

12. Stocks
What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 10,500
b. 10,500 to 11,000
c. 11,000 to 11,500
d. 11,500 to 12,000
e. 12,000 to 12,500
f. greater than 12,500

The Dow Jones index finished at 12,217.56, bringing to a close the 2011 Prognostication Quiz with a final answer of E. 12,000 to 12,500.

This was the most popular answer, and mimics the long-term trend in the Dow Jones index. I hope everyone borrowed heavily and invested in stocks this year.

The E people:
Russell
Jo
Cameron M.
Dave
Ekrem
Michael
Kevin
Claire&Craig
Rachel F.
Grant
Beth
Rachel H.
Tina
Ellen
Zhiqi
Janet
Eric
Peter B.
Chris C.
Nadir

Leader Board

The point for Russell pulls him into a tie with Marcus for first place with seven points. After the tie-breaker, however, Marcus wins by a neck. Here is the final listing with the tie-break incorporated:

1. Marcus (7)
2. Russell (7)
3. Jo (6)
4. Cameron M. (5)
5. Dave (5)
6. Ryan (5)
7. Paul (5)
8. Megan (5)
9. Adrian (5)
10. Stacey (5)
11. Cherie (5)
12. Ekrem (5)
13. Claire&Craig (4)
14. Rachel F. (4)
15. Kevin (4)
16. Michael (4)
17. Grant (4)
18. Lorraine (4)
19. Beth (4)
20. Rachel H. (4)
21. Tina (4)
22. Valerie (4)
23. Jan (4)
24. Jeff (4)
25. Ron (4)
26. Zoe (4)
27. Pete C. (4)
28. Zhiqi (3)
29. Katie (3)
30. Todd (3)
31. Janet (3)
32. Ellen (3)
33. Eric (3)
34. Matthew (3)
35. Gloria (3)
36. Rich (3)
37. Leanne (3)
38. Collette (3)
39. Liz (3)
40. Cameron L. (3)
41. Ted (3)
42. Peter B. (2)
43. Missy (2)
44. Larry (2)
45. Craig (2)
46. Chris C. (2)
47. Sarah (2)
48. Chris M. (2)
49. Nadir (1)
50. Keila (1)
51. Ben (1)

Winner

Although Marcus (my college friend) picked F for question 12, he tells me he made a tactical choice of 12,235 for his tie breaker, since he wanted to be a bit closer to the median with his tie-break. His carefully calculated guess ended up just 17 points away from the actual year-end close for the Dow Jones. That's pretty impressive. (Of the 51 entrants, only Zhiqi came closer, with her tie-break guess of 12,222.) Also impressive was Marcus's predictions of three deaths this year: Harry Morgan, Sherwood Schwartz, and (most impressively), Osama bin Laden.

Marcus has also had a nice run in the last three years. In fact, he is first overall in average score among people who have played at least three out of the four quizzes. (He has averaged 5.3 points per year, edging Zoe, Russell, and Pete C. who have averaged 5.0 points per year.)

Marcus's acceptance speech: "I would like to thank the little people that made this all possible, especially my six-sided die which gave me the right answer to question 1. I'll definitely be using it again in the 2012 contest!"

Runner-up

Russell (my grad school friend) had an impressive year, too, and the Dow spent the entire first day of trading in 2012 in the range where Russell would have won the tie-break (closing the first day at 12,397). That's how close it was. So big kudos to Russell. Like Marcus, Russell predicted the demise of Harry Morgan and Osama bin Laden. Russell also predicted the passing of Zsa-zsa Gabor, who had a leg amputated and spent much of the year in the hospital but refused to die. If only I gave partial credit for loss of a major body part. Zsa-zsa survives into the 2012 Prognostication Quiz.

Russell's concession speech: "Even though I am disappointed, I take my hat off to both Zsa-Zsa and Marcus! But may the latter outlive the former!"

Also-rans

In third place is Jo, who came agonizingly close to becoming the third member of her family in a row to win the Quiz. Her son Matthew D. won two years ago, and her husband Ron won last year. I would normally say this is also an impressive accomplishment since it is her first year taking the quiz, but I'm sure she had lots of coaching from Matthew D. and Ron.

In fourth place is Cameron M., the father of my college friend Grant. Cameron bested his son (17th place) and his wife (22nd place). Cameron beat his family in the same order last year as well.

In fifth place is Dave, my grad school friend and bridge partner. Dave has also become my parenting doppelganger in recent years, as his two children are the precise ages of my two children (within a few weeks each). He placed an impressive second-highest of the newcomers to the quiz, and highest among my bridge partners in the quiz.

In sixth place is Ryan, husband of a high school friend. His high finish is impressive because he finished second in the very close race last year. His score of 13 combined points over the two years is unequaled. (Marcus, Ron, and Russell have 12 points over that span; Cameron M., Rachel H., and Adrian have 10.) Ryan is also the second highest scorer all time in the quiz. (Matthew D. is in first with 19 points; Ryan has 17; Marcus, Ekrem, and Grant have 16.)

In seventh place is Paul, another newcomer. He is the top finisher among the people I know through my wife. (He is the brother of Liz, one of my wife's friends and quiz participant.) I also play fantasy football with him and sometimes attend neuroscience conferences with him.

In eighth place is Megan, one of the twelve original quizsters who have been a part of all four quiz seasons. She is a friend of Eric, who hosted the New Year's party four years ago where the quiz was born. Her finish this year (8th out of 51 entrants) beats her previous top finish of 5th place out of 27 entrants in the inaugural quiz.

In ninth place is Adrian, a college friend. After tying his husband Craig in last year's quiz, Adrian has serious crowing rights this year, besting Craig's score by 150%.

In tenth place is Stacey, a work colleague and another newcomer to the quiz. Stacey is the top finisher among men you probably thought were women. (Jan would be the other one. Adrian gets his share of confusion, too, but his spelling is assuredly masculine.)

In eleventh place is my mother Cherie, the top finisher amongst my relatives in the quiz. This is probably a little embarrassing, since we outnumber Matthew D. and his extended family (including Ron, Jo, Cameron L., and Claire&Craig) by two-to-one, yet in all four years, the top member of his family has beaten the top finisher of my family. Nice try, Mom. We'll get them next year.

In twelfth place is my college friend Ekrem, who assured himself last place among five-point finishers by refusing to provide a tie-break prediction. His creative entry BAD ABBA EAT LEVI'S got off to a very quick start, with four out of the first six questions correct. He faded quickly, though, and only picked up a single point for the final 8 months of the year.

Last Place

Improbably, my cousin Nadir escaped a goose egg for the year by guessing right on the last question. That leaves Rachel H. as the only contestant ever to score zero on a quiz (which she did in 2009). Once he got that precious point, Nadir actually leaped over the other two one-point scorers by outguessing them on the Dow.

Immediately below Nadir is Keila, the wife of Chris C. (who is a colleague of Ekrem's). She beat her husband last year, but must kowtow to him this year. We'll see who prevails in 2012.

In dead last this year is Ben, husband of my grad school friend Rachel F. Ben and Rachel F. are on opposite tracks. Rachel F. has scored 1, 2, and 4 points over the last three years while Ben's scores have been 5, 2, and 1. Presumably we can look for Ben at the bottom again next year, perhaps garnering that coveted goose egg.

Final Word

Thanks to everyone for participating! If you enjoyed yourself, be sure to enter the 2012 Prognostication Quiz, now accepting entries. New entrants are always welcome, so be sure to tell your contest-loving friends to give it a try!

2011 Prognostication Quiz: Question 13-15, Death

2011-12-14T14:29:00.004-06:00

The elder statesman of the the 2011 Prognostication Quiz has passed on. Colonel Potter of M*A*S*H retires to the great Korean war in the sky. That makes A. Harry Morgan a correct answer on Question 13-15 of the quiz.

The Ageists
Marcus
Russell
Megan
Paul
Stacey
Cameron M.
Dave
Zoe
Katie
Rachel F.
Todd
Beth
Tina
Leanne
Ted
Larry
Missy

Leaderboard

This death has a profound effect on the leaderboard. What was a four-way race just two weeks ago has been winnowed down to two. Russell will pull even with Marcus and best him in the tiebreaker if the Dow ends the year between 12,361.5 and 12,499.99. Otherwise, Marcus wins. The Dow has not been higher than 12,200 since late July, but some good news from Congress or Europe could easily set it rising in the last two weeks of the year. If Zsa-zsa Gabor (in and out of the hospital all year) finally buys the farm, Russell would expand his winning range and win if the Dow finished anywhere above 12,000.

Megan, Paul, Adrian, and Stacey are all dark horses but could still win if the Dow ends between 11,500 and 12,000 AND something special happens: Megan needs Iran to conduct a nuclear test, Paul needs Ravi Shankar to advance to his next incarnation, Stacey needs the Euro to break apart, and Adrian needs Kirk Douglas or Billy Graham to stop breathing.

Two and a half weeks left!

7 Marcus
6 Russell
5 Megan
5 Paul
5 Adrian
5 Stacey
5 Jo
5 Ryan
5 Cherie
4 Lorraine
4 Cameron M.
4 Dave
4 Valerie
4 Jan
4 Jeff
4 Ron
4 Pete C.
4 Zoe
4 Ekrem
3 Gloria
3 Michael
3 Kevin
3 Claire&Craig
3 Rachel F.
3 Todd
3 Grant
3 Beth
3 Rachel H.
3 Tina
3 Matthew
3 Leanne
3 Liz
3 Rich
3 Cameron L.
3 Collette
3 Ted
2 Craig
2 Larry
2 Missy
2 Ellen
2 Katie
2 Zhiqi
2 Janet
2 Eric
2 Chris M.
2 Sarah
1 Keila
1 Ben
1 Peter B.
1 Chris C.
0 Nadir

Back down here at the bottom, Nadir may finally get a little bit of luck! He has chosen the Dow to end between 12,000 and 12,500, which is where the Dow is right now. Will he hang on and win his first and only point of the year? We have a photo finish at the top AND at the bottom!

2011 Prognostication Quiz: Question 10, Storms

2011-12-04T13:15:00.007-06:00

Question 10. Storms

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were twelve hurricanes in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, nine in 2004, and seven in 2003. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the last 12 years)?

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 3 or less
b. 4-5
c. 6-7
d. 8-9
e. 10-12
f. 13 or more

Kudos to those who thought we would exactly match the recent average of seven hurricanes. There were precisely seven Atlantic storms that made it to hurricane strength this year. This means the answer to Question 10 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz is C. 6-7.

The 7 Winners
Irene
Katia
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina

Those who predicted the 7 winners
Russell
Ryan
Stacey
Lorraine
Ron
Collette
Gloria
Beth

Question 13-15. Death

One more death to tick off:

r. Andy Rooney, 60 Minutes Journalist (92)

Rooney was one of the media's great workaholics. He died just five weeks after he aired his final witty commentary for 60 Minutes. I would rather not still be at the lab bench doing experiments when I'm in my early 90's. (Although, if someone told me that I would kick off 30 days after I retired, I might change my mind.)

The Rooney retinue
Cherie
Kevin
Rachel H.
Gloria
Todd
Janet

Special kudos to Kevin, who gets his first death for the clever predictive troika of R.I.P. (Ben has yet to score from his more hopeful wish of death to G.O.P.)

Leaderboard

Marcus retains his grip on first place, even though he should be particularly embarrassed to miss the hurricanes question given that he is a climate scientist. Neither Jo or Adrian were able to catch up with Marcus, though Russell, Ryan, and Cherie join them at just one point behind the leader.

6 Marcus
5 Russell
5 Jo
5 Adrian
5 Ryan
5 Cherie
4 Lorraine
4 Paul
4 Megan
4 Stacey
4 Valerie
4 Jan
4 Jeff
4 Ron
4 Pete C.
4 Ekrem
3 Michael
3 Kevin
3 Claire&Craig
3 Gloria
3 Cameron M.
3 Grant
3 Rachel H.
3 Dave
3 Matthew
3 Rich
3 Liz
3 Collette
3 Cameron L.
3 Zoe
2 Ellen
2 Katie
2 Zhiqi
2 Craig
2 Rachel F.
2 Todd
2 Janet
2 Eric
2 Beth
2 Tina
2 Leanne
2 Sarah
2 Chris M.
2 Ted
1 Missy
1 Larry
1 Peter B.
1 Keila
1 Ben
1 Chris C.
0 Nadir

Question 12: Stocks

Marcus remains the strong favorite to end up victorious at the end of the year due to the fact that his Dow Jones prediction is still in play. Or to be precise, due to the fact that his predictions are still in play. Although most entrants do match their stocks prediction with their tie-break answer, there is no requirement to do so. This year, Marcus predicted that the Dow would end up over 12,500 (answer F to Question 12), but listed 12,235 as his tie-break. This, combined with his one-point lead and the other answers and tie-breaks, makes the final story a bit complicated. Barring any further celebrity deaths or interesting events, Marcus can win if the Dow ends in any one of three non-consecutive ranges:

>12,500 = Marcus wins
12,492.5 to 12,499.99 = Jo wins
12,361.5 to 12,492.5 = Russell wins
11,908.5 to 12,361.5 = Marcus wins
11,500 to 11,908.5 = Adrian wins
<11,500 = Marcus wins

(Note that Ryan and Cherie are not listed since they chose answer F on Question 12 along with Marcus, so they need an additional point from Question 11 or 13-15 to prevail.)

Hang on to your hats! It's going to be another close finish!

2011 Prognostication Quiz: Question 9, Peace

2011-10-03T08:17:00.008-05:00

Question 9. Peace (October)

For the past 21 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded.

What key word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize?
a. “Democracy” (5)
b. “Rights” (6)
c. Any specific geographical region (6)
d. “International” (5)
e. “Peaceful” (6)
f. None of the above (4)

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee, and Tawakkul Karman win this year's Nobel Peace Prize "for their nonviolent struggle for the safety of women and for women's rights to full participation in peace-building work."

This makes the answer to Question 9 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz is B. Rights.

Kudos to the eleven who lean a bit to the right:

Adrian
Megan
Valerie
Jan
Jeff
Claire&Craig
Cameron M.
Rich
Eric
Sarah
Keila

That's two years in a row the Peace Prize has gone for rights. (Last year Liu Xiaobo won it for his struggles for human rights in China.) That makes it such a favorite that I'll probably have to pick a different set of choices for next year's quiz.

Question 13: Death

Sherwood Shwartz passed away last July. I seem to have missed it, so I didn't include it in the last update.

In the "nicely summarized" department, this is from the New York Times obituary: "Sherwood Schwartz, who created 'Gilligan’s Island' and 'The Brady Bunch,' two of the most affectionately ridiculed and enduring television sitcoms of the 1960s and ’70s, died on Tuesday in Los Angeles. He was 94."

A lovely lady, three very lovely girls, a man named Brady, and three boys of his own each get a point:

Marcus
Pete C.
Stacey
Dave
Zoe
Leanne
Ted
Peter B.

Leader Board

With his second correct death prediction of the year (Osama bin Laden was the other), Marcus has catapulted into the lead. His previous co-leader Jo was shut out this month, allowing Adrian's Nobel perspicacity to sneak him into a tie for second. The ten people tied for fourth place are also very much still in the picture.

We have two questions left (Storms and Stocks) along with the possibility of another Event or another Death (or two). We are sitting on 5 hurricanes right now; Marcus guessed 8 or 9, Adrian guessed 10 to 12, and Jo guessed 13 or more. More likely, Russell or Ryan will win that question with their guess of 6 or 7 hurricanes. (A longer trip down the leader board to Chris M., Rachel H., and Eric is necessary to find the first to profit from no further hurricanes.) The market is so volatile right now that the Stocks question is still pretty wide open. It should be an exciting finish!

The full standings:

6 Marcus
5 Adrian
5 Jo
4 Megan
4 Paul
4 Pete C.
4 Russell
4 Ryan
4 Valerie
4 Jan
4 Cherie
4 Jeff
4 Ekrem
3 Liz
3 Cameron L.
3 Stacey
3 Lorraine
3 Michael
3 Claire&Craig
3 Cameron M.
3 Grant
3 Dave
3 Matthew
3 Rich
3 Ron
3 Zoe
2 Leanne
2 Chris M.
2 Craig
2 Ellen
2 Kevin
2 Katie
2 Zhiqi
2 Rachel F.
2 Eric
2 Rachel H.
2 Tina
2 Sarah
2 Collette
2 Ted
1 Ben
1 Keila
1 Gloria
1 Larry
1 Missy
1 Todd
1 Peter B.
1 Janet
1 Beth
1 Chris C.
0 Nadir

At the lower end of the scale, Keila and Peter B. had a very exciting month, each scoring their first point! This leaves my poor cousin Nadir downtrodden and all alone in dead last. It doesn't really look very good for him to score at all, sadly, which might end him with a big goose egg for the entire year. He will be hoping upon hope for 5 to 7 further hurricanes (impossible) or for the Dow to rise another 500 to 1000 points (certainly possible, given a resolution to the lingering sovereign debt crisis in Europe, say). Barring those, he needs Yitzhak Shamir, Bobby Doerr, or Billy Graham to buy the farm. He would also be happy if Iran snuck in a nuclear weapons test before the New Year. Like I said, it's not looking so good.

Calvin's first three months

2011-08-28T17:01:00.022-05:00

By popular demand (viz. Leanne) here are a bunch of cute baby pictures. Prepare for the happy!

0.2 months: Sorry I'm a little yellow. The bilirubin was still on its way out.
0.3 months: Maxwell is very gentle holding my hand.
0.5 months: Don't you wish you could still get away with sleeping 20 hours a day?
0.8 months: Not sure why I don't get to wear bright colors.
0.8 months: Daddy drills me every day on my penmanship.
1.0 months: Daddy doesn't look as tired as he is feeling.
1.0 months: Posing for the camera.
1.4 months: Maxwell likes to give me hugs.
1.5 months: I'm a little grumpy today.
1.7 months: Family photo. Maxwell taught me how not to look at the camera.
2.0 months: I love how the Minnesota grass has been so green for my entire life.
2.2 months: Bathtime with Mommy.
2.4 months: Hanging out in the vibrating bouncy chair.
2.7 months: Maxwell orchestrates a brother-brother nap in the living room.

2011 Prognostication Quiz: Question 8, Golf

2011-08-19T16:22:00.003-05:00

Question 8, Golf.
Tiger Woods has won 14 Major Championships in the past 14 years, but he has not won any in the past two years. Will he ever win again? Or is he washed up? Pick only one answer. (Ties are possible.)

Which Major Championship will Tiger win?
a. the Masters in April (4)
b. the US Open in June (3)
c. the British Open in July (3)
d. the PGA Championship in August (4)
e. Tiger will win no Championships

Tiger had an awful year and didn't even make the cut for the PGA Championship last weekend. This will not surprise the 19 entrants who realized that Tiger was no longer capable of finding his happy place. This makes the answer to Question 8 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz e. Tiger will win no Championships.

The Elin sympathizers:

Jo
Marcus
Ryan
Adrian
Jeff
Jan
Liz
Ron
Matthew
Grant
Megan
Tina
Zhiqi
Rachel H.
Cameron M.
Rachel F.
Craig
Stacey
Gloria

The 19 votes for this question was the biggest voting bloc of the entire quiz for questions with more than three answers. Perhaps it was a bad question.

In stark contrast, Ekrem was the only one to choose F. None of the above. He perhaps failed to realize that none of the above is logically impossible, requiring Tiger not to win any of the four Majors while simultaneously not not winning at least one Major. I didn't even list F as an option. Perhaps Ekrem understood the risks involved but decided it was worth the sacrifice in the name of art in order to have his answers spell out "BAD ABBA FED LEVIS."

Leader Board

The six-way tie we had last week was broken in favor of Marcus and Jo, who have stepped their way up to a two-way tie for first on the broken back of Tiger Woods.

Come the Peace Prize announcement in October, Marcus will occupy first place on his own if the winner did "international" deeds. Jo will advance instead if the winner aided "democracy." (They will advance together in the case of "international democracy.") Adrian will advance to a three-way tie for first if "rights" are involved, and Ryan will advance to the three-way tie if a geographical region is mentioned. Cherie and Ekrem can advance to a four-way tie if the result is "peaceful." No chance of first for Paul and Russell, who picked "international" along with Marcus.

5 Marcus
5 Jo
4 Adrian
4 Paul
4 Russell
4 Ryan
4 Cherie
4 Ekrem
3 Cameron L.
3 Liz
3 Pete C.
3 Megan
3 Lorraine
3 Michael
3 Grant
3 Matthew
3 Valerie
3 Jan
3 Jeff
3 Ron
2 Chris M.
2 Stacey
2 Craig
2 Ellen
2 Kevin
2 Claire&Craig
2 Katie
2 Zhiqi
2 Rachel F.
2 Cameron M.
2 Rachel H.
2 Dave
2 Tina
2 Rich
2 Collette
2 Zoe
1 Leanne
1 Ben
1 Gloria
1 Larry
1 Missy
1 Todd
1 Janet
1 Eric
1 Beth
1 Chris C.
1 Sarah
1 Ted
0 Keila
0 Nadir
0 Peter B.

The race for the bottom has gotten tighter, as Gloria finally delivered on a question and climbed out of the basement. Whipping-girl Keila has reordered herself out of absolute last, though, thanks to the recent turnaround on Wall Street. Peter B. inherits her spot in dead last.

2011 Prognostication Quiz: Question 7, Olympics

2011-07-22T14:03:00.000-05:00

Question 7. Olympics

Only three cities have bid to host the 2018 Winter Olympics. Which city will deliver the winning presentation to the International Olympic Committee?
a. Annency, France
b. Munich, Germany
c. Pyeongchang, South Korea

The Olympic committee went with South Korea, putting in great jeopardy Tokyo's bid for the summer Olympics in 2020. That means that the answer to Question 7 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz c. Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Nine people correctly predicted that the Olympic Committee would avoid the tired old cities of Western Europe this time around. The just-outside-of-Seoul-mates:

Cherie
Russell
Ryan
Michael
Adrian
Matthew
Grant
Katie
Megan

Seventeen people in the Quiz rooted for France, while twenty-three pulled for Germany. The nine of us who went with Pyeongchang are feeling rather smug right now and move strongly up the pack.

Ted was alone in thinking the answer would be D. Sadly for him, no country felt safe in submitting a dark horse application so far past the deadline.

Question 13-15. Death

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2011?

On Friday, a family friend confirmed that seven people in the Quiz are one point richer, as l. Betty Ford, Former US First Lady passed away. Betty Ford was a remarkable woman, very outspoken and refreshingly frank in talking about many topics that were all too taboo at the time that she was first lady. She will certainly be missed, but a little less so by these recovering alcoholics:

Paul
Jo
Cameron L.
Valerie
Jeff
Collette
Eric

It's actually been a slow year for obituary writers. We made it half the year without any deaths on Question 13-15. It feels like the second death, though, since the neutralization of Osama bin Laden was predicted by five people in the Quiz.

It really was a phenomenal prediction for the five who saw the attack of the Navy Seals coming from 8000 miles away. I thought I'd give them a little more space than I did in last month's post to toot their own horns. Here are their (mostly) unedited reactions:

I think that there should be a special prize for the five of us who picked the Osama question right. I mean, that's HUGE! In any case, I feel like a winner for finally having some points.

-Liz

I'm so proud I predicted the "neutralization" of bin Laden! I've literally been telling people that I predicted it...and then they say "no you didn't" and then I say, "no really, I'm in a prognostication quiz, and I literally predicted it". It's quite fun. Now if Zsa Zsa would just stop messing around and actually kick it.

-Russell

I have to admit, that the first thing that crossed my mind on the Sunday night when I heard the rumors was, "hey, it looks like I'm going to get a point on the Prognostication Quiz!" I'm not sure what that says about my priorities in the world.

-Marcus

I AM SOOO PLEASED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HE WAS EVIL WE HAVE BEEN CHASING!!!!!!!! I KNEW WE WOULD FIND HIM!!!!!! 25 OF US NAVY SEALS DROPPED DOWN ON HIM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND SHOT HIM DEAD!! NO INJURIES FOR US!!!!!!!!!

-Cherie (my mother, in her usual emphatic way)

All events seemed low probability (though the Japan quake sure shut my
mouth). But this was one that had really serious resources behind it
trying to make it happen. Follow the money, that's my motto!

-Jan

Follow the money, indeed! A clever guiding principle in prognostication.

Leader Board

We now have a SIX-way tie for first place, topped by my mother, Cherie, who is currently winning the tie-break. Another seven (including, unusually, me) are just one point behind. It's still anyone's game! No one has been mathematically eliminated!

4 Cherie
4 Jo
4 Russell
4 Marcus
4 Paul
4 Ekrem
3 Valerie
3 Ryan
3 Michael
3 Lorraine
3 Adrian
3 Cameron L.
3 Pete C.
2 Collette
2 Ron
2 Jeff
2 Rich
2 Jan
2 Zoe
2 Matthew
2 Dave
2 Grant
2 Katie
2 Claire&Craig
2 Kevin
2 Ellen
2 Megan
2 Liz
2 Chris M.
1 Ted
1 Sarah
1 Chris C.
1 Tina
1 Rachel H.
1 Beth
1 Eric
1 Janet
1 Todd
1 Cameron M.
1 Rachel F.
1 Zhiqi
1 Missy
1 Larry
1 Craig
1 Stacey
1 Ben
1 Leanne
0 Peter B.
0 Nadir
0 Gloria
0 Keila

Again if you've read this far, you're probably searching for your name at the bottom of the list. Eric managed to drag himself away from the agony of the basement by correctly predicting Betty Ford's demise. Good luck to the final four still at the bottom!

Max meets Calvin

2011-05-22T13:20:00.005-05:00

Max has been a wonderful older brother to Calvin, now a month old. Here are the videos documenting their first encounter, in the hospital when Calvin was just two days old:

Max sees his baby brother Calvin for the first time. Max seems particularly interested in Calvin's nose.

More attempts at the nose.

Eventually Max moved on to investigating Calvin's feet, mouth, and umbilical cord remnant. Then he gets bored. He is only two.

Aunt qua babysitter Tina seems more interested in Calvin's cheek.

Max's boredom is allayed with periodic forays into the shower.

2011 Prognostication Quiz, Question #6 Writing

2011-05-03T15:13:00.004-05:00

I apologize to everyone for being so tardy in posting this blog post. The 2011 prizes were announced at 8:30 a.m. on April 18. As it turns out, that was 6 hours and 8 minutes after my second son was born, so I have been somewhat busy with the toddler-infant combo in recent days.

Question 6. Writing

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post
b. The New York Times
c. The Wall Street Journal
d. The Los Angeles Times
e. another paper will be named the most times

It was a close one this year! The New York Times and the Los Angeles Times each won two Pulitzers this year, besting the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, with just one prize apiece. That means the answer to Question 6 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz is a tie between answer answers B and D. Details are at the Pulitzer Prize website.

Times readers of the New York variety:
Ekrem, Marcus, Jo, Paul, Pete C., Russell, Cherie, Claire&Craig, Michael, Zoe, Cameron L., Jan, Liz, Matthew, Tina, Beth, Grant, Chris C., Janet, Todd, Zhiqi, Craig, Megan, Stacey, and Ben.

Times readers of the Los Angeles variety:
Rich, Ellen, Ron, and Ted.

The New York Times got a lot of votes for a question that recent history suggests was a toss-up, more or less, for the top four answers: 24 of the 51 entrants picked answer B. Is this just due to the NYT's higher profile? Or were people just wowed by the journalistic output of the Gray Lady last year?

Missy was the only person who went out on a limb and picked "none of the above," and she came much closer to winning than I thought possible!

Question 11. Events

What rare event will happen in 2011?
a. The US conducts an overt military action against North Korea.
b. China conducts an overt military action against Taiwan.
c. Japan announces it has acquired a nuclear weapon.
d. Iran conducts a nuclear weapons test.
e. Osama bin Laden is captured or neutralized.
f. An internationally recognized Palestinian state is established.
g. The United Kingdom announces its intention to join the euro.
h. Any country announces its intention to drop the euro.
i. The US establishes a cap-and-trade system for emissions.
j. BP files for bankruptcy in the US.
k. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs.
l. Higgs-Boson particle is observed to a confidence of five sigma.

Another of the rare events from Question 11 also occurred recently, following up on the magnitude 9.0 earthquake in Japan. It did not get a lot of press, so many of you may not have heard, but Osama bin Laden was neutralized (not captured) a week ago. That means those that chose answer E are now one point richer. The Abbottabad activists:

Marcus
Russell
Cherie
Jan
Liz

Leader Board

Congratulations to new co-leader Marcus, who correctly guessed both the Pulitzer Prize victor as well as the daring raid that neutralized the world's most successful terrorist. He joins Ekrem, who retained his position at the top by also guessing the Pulitzer result. Lorraine's brief stint at the top comes to an end, and she drops back to a six-way tie for third place with Cherie, Jo, Russell, Paul, and Pete C., who all advanced one point this month.

4 Marcus
4 Ekrem
3 Cherie
3 Jo
3 Russell
3 Lorraine
3 Paul
3 Pete C.
2 Zoe
2 Ron
2 Rich
2 Jan
2 Valerie
2 Ryan
2 Dave
2 Claire&Craig
2 Kevin
2 Ellen
2 Michael
2 Adrian
2 Liz
2 Chris M.
2 Cameron L.
1 Ted
1 Collette
1 Jeff
1 Sarah
1 Chris C.
1 Matthew
1 Tina
1 Rachel H.
1 Beth
1 Grant
1 Janet
1 Todd
1 Cameron M.
1 Rachel F.
1 Zhiqi
1 Katie
1 Missy
1 Larry
1 Craig
1 Megan
1 Stacey
1 Ben
1 Leanne
0 Eric
0 Peter B.
0 Nadir
0 Gloria
0 Keila

If you've scrolled down this far, you also see that not many people still have zero points. Only five have been shut out through the first four months of the year. Good luck to Eric, Peter B., Nadir, Gloria, and Keila in avoiding the embarrassment of finishing dead last in the quiz. It seems like Keila is in particular danger, picking the least bullish tiebreaker in what seems will be a bullish year for the Dow Jones index. Poor Keila.

Question 7 update

Another shake-up at the top of the leader board is guaranteed come July. Ekrem guessed A, Marcus guessed B, and both Cherie and Russell guessed C. Stay tuned!

Calvin is born

2011-05-02T15:13:00.009-05:00

Introducing our second son, Calvin Lawrence, born on April 18 at 2:22 a.m. and tipping the scales at 8 pounds and 1 ounce.
He sleeps and eats in large portions, unlike his rascally brother Maxwell did when he was the same age.
Mother and baby are recuperating nicely despite some abdominal surgery and a touch of jaundice, respectively.
Father is a little tired but doesn't feel like he has much cause to complain.
Welcome to our new addition!

2011 Prognostication Quiz, Question #11 Events

2011-03-15T08:48:00.004-06:00

11. Events (December)
Pick an interesting low-frequency event that might happen sometime this year. Each of these is listed in a contract on Intrade.com. They are each trading in the 5 – 15% range, many with very high uncertainty.

What rare event will happen in 2011?
a. The US conducts an overt military action against North Korea.
b. China conducts an overt military action against Taiwan.
c. Japan announces it has acquired a nuclear weapon.
d. Iran conducts a nuclear weapons test.
e. Osama bin Laden is captured or neutralized.
f. An internationally recognized Palestinian state is established.
g. The United Kingdom announces its intention to join the euro.
h. Any country announces its intention to drop the euro.
i. The US establishes a cap-and-trade system for emissions.
j. BP files for bankruptcy in the US.
k. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs.
l. Higgs-Boson particle is observed to a confidence of five sigma.

After a more thorough analysis of the seismograph data, the US Geological Survey has changed the estimated magnitude of Friday's earthquake in Japan from 8.9 to 9.0. The Intrade contract that I based the answer on has thus expired.

The horrific toll in human life and the continuing crises over the damaged nuclear power plants are quite sobering.

The earthquake predictors:
Lorraine
Ryan
Jo
Kevin
Adrian
Michael

Leader Board

With the earthquake reanalysis, Lorraine has now snuck into first place along with Ekrem. Ten entrants are one behind at two points.

3 Lorraine
3 Ekrem
2 Ryan
2 Jo
2 Dave
2 Valerie
2 Marcus
2 Kevin
2 Paul
2 Adrian
2 Chris M.
2 Pete C.
1 Rachel H.
1 Russell
1 Cameron M.
1 Rich
1 Rachel F.
1 Katie
1 Claire&Craig
1 Sarah
1 Ellen
1 Michael
1 Missy
1 Cherie
1 Jeff
1 Ron
1 Larry
1 Collette
1 Leanne
1 Zoe
1 Cameron L.
0 Matthew
0 Tina
0 Beth
0 Eric
0 Jan
0 Grant
0 Chris C.
0 Janet
0 Todd
0 Peter B.
0 Zhiqi
0 Nadir
0 Craig
0 Megan
0 Gloria
0 Keila
0 Stacey
0 Ben
0 Ted
0 Liz

Question 6 Update

The updated leader board makes the next question a bit more exciting. Lorraine has picked A. The Washington Post while Ekrem chose B. The New York Times. If the winner turns out to be C. The Wall Street Journal, Dave, Valerie, and Kevin would advance to a five-way tie for first place. If D. The Los Angeles Times manages to eke out a victory, nothing really exciting would happen: Rich, Ellen, and Ron would advance to the second-place tie at two points. I'm sure that each of you will be glued to your television sets on April 18 at 3 p.m. Eastern Time!

2011 Prognostication Quiz, Question #5 Film

2011-03-12T08:36:00.006-06:00

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?
a. The Social Network
b. The King's Speech
c. True Grit
d. 127 Hours
e. Inception
f. none of the above: some other film will win

The film about overcoming adversity had to overcome adversity to best the late favorite The Social Network for American filmdom's top prize. The answer to Question 5 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz and the winner of the 2011 Academy Award for best picture is b. The King's Speech.

Sixteen contestants guessed this correctly, besting the seventeen who found Mark Zuckerberg's tale more compelling than King George VI's and also the twenty who took a flier on an underdog in the form of answers C, D, E, or F.

The Oscar V-V-Victors:

Ekrem
Valerie
Marcus
Lorraine
Chris M.
Zoe
Ron
Cherie
Sarah
Jo
Cameron M.
Rachel F.
Katie
Claire&Craig
Ellen
Adrian

Leader Board

Ekrem has stunned the competition with his third point out of five questions. After three years, his "spell something" strategy for choosing entries has finally starting to pay off with his currently brilliant slate of answers, "BAD ABBA FED LEVIS."

Celebrating the concept, the photo above is the top result of a Google Images search for "BAD ABBA." The photo title is The really bad Abba imitators and is in a folder titled Knoeble's Grove [sic], which is an amusement park in Pennsylvania. You can almost hear the tuba visible in the background laying down a woefully inadequate disco bass line.

3 Ekrem
2 Valerie
2 Dave
2 Marcus
2 Lorraine
2 Paul
2 Chris M.
2 Pete C.
1 Zoe
1 Collette
1 Ron
1 Jeff
1 Cherie
1 Sarah
1 Rich
1 Ryan
1 Jo
1 Rachel H.
1 Russell
1 Cameron M.
1 Rachel F.
1 Katie
1 Claire&Craig
1 Kevin
1 Ellen
1 Missy
1 Larry
1 Adrian
1 Leanne
1 Cameron L.
0 Ted
0 Chris C.
0 Jan
0 Matthew
0 Tina
0 Beth
0 Eric
0 Grant
0 Janet
0 Todd
0 Peter B.
0 Zhiqi
0 Michael
0 Nadir
0 Craig
0 Gloria
0 Megan
0 Keila
0 Stacey
0 Ben
0 Liz

This should also serve as a wake-up call for those of us who have yet to score a point. With the Question 5 returns, the median score has shifted from zero to one. The 21 of us with zero points (out of the 53 entrants) are now below average by mean or median. We aren't even the mode anymore, since 22 entrants have one point.

Question 11 Update

The devastating earthquake that hit Japan on Friday was only 8.9 on the Richter scale. Lorraine, Ryan, Jo, Kevin, Adrian, and I hope that the 9.0-magnitude earthquake that we have predicted for this year happens further out in the middle of the ocean so as to be less destructive to humans.

Question 13-15 Update

Valerie, Dave, Chris M., Ron, Sarah, Jo, Russell, Rachel F., Katie, Adrian, Matthew, Grant, Megan, and Keila also came close to getting a point when a significant percentage of Zsa Zsa Gabor died as she had part of her leg amputated recently. Fractional points will not be awarded in this situation.

Max's Second Christmas

2011-02-24T20:58:00.004-06:00

Katie and I show our typical ability in trying to get Max to smile for a photo. This was (by far) the best take out of a dozen or so in this series.

Given his clumsy knockdown of the three-block tower at the start, I was shocked at the end of taking this video. Max was just learning how to stack blocks at this time, and I happened to be taking video while watching him build the tallest tower I'd ever seen him build to date.

For Christmas, Max got a set of Duplo blocks, but he preferred playing with the box they came in.

I was enjoined to dress Max in "something festive" for Christmas. The only thing I could find that fit that description was a silvery Halloween costume, which Max enjoyed showing off to everyone. Here, he giggles as he chases aunt Laura around the dining room table.

Max has connived aunts Missy and Tina into playing one of his favorite games. While Max sits on the top step, Missy shovels snow into a pile in front of him. Max then scoops the snow into his lap, turning to Tina when his mittens collect too much snow.

2011 Prognostication Quiz, #4 Football

2011-02-07T14:01:00.008-06:00

The sixth-seed Green Bay Packers defeated all of their conference rivals and then went on to prevail over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was awarded the honor of Most Valuable Player as he threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns. Kudos to the six whose underdog pick worked out!

Honorary Cheeseheads

Dave
Pete C.
Collette
Jeff
Rich
Kevin

One of the saddest things about the Packers winning was my grad school friend Sarah. She is a huge Packers fan, but did not think that Aaron Rodgers was quite good enough to pull his team all the way to the championship. She decided to play it safe and pick the favored Patriots. She must have felt especially awful when Green Bay won it all despite her lack of faith. Adding insult to injury was the fact that her mother Collette never lost the Packer faith and has now scored her first point. Sarah will be tormented for all eternity in the ninth circle of hell along with arch-betrayers Brutus and Cassius (who also have zero points).

Leader Board

Congratulations to Dave and Pete C. for joining Paul and Ekrem at the top of the leader board! Dave is off to an early lead in his first quiz, while Pete C. is no stranger to the leader board (though he took a hiatus last year).

2 Dave
2 Paul
2 Pete C.
2 Ekrem
1 Collette
1 Jeff
1 Rich
1 Valerie
1 Ryan
1 Rachel H.
1 Russell
1 Marcus
1 Kevin
1 Missy
1 Lorraine
1 Larry
1 Leanne
1 Chris M.
1 Cameron L.
0 Ted
0 Zoe
0 Ron
0 Cherie
0 Sarah
0 Chris C.
0 Jan
0 Matthew
0 Tina
0 Jo
0 Beth
0 Eric
0 Grant
0 Janet
0 Todd
0 Peter B.
0 Cameron M.
0 Rachel F.
0 Zhiqi
0 Katie
0 Claire&Craig
0 Ellen
0 Michael
0 Nadir
0 Craig
0 Gloria
0 Megan
0 Keila
0 Adrian
0 Stacey
0 Ben
0 Liz

Question 5 Update

The prediction markets have Ekrem and The King's Speech as a 5-to-1 favorite over Pete C. and The Social Network to win the Best Picture Oscar on February 27. (Dave and Paul are 50-to-1 underdogs with 127 Hours.) Stay tuned!

2011 Prognostication Quiz, Question #2 and #3

2011-01-17T07:28:00.008-06:00

Question #2: Freedom

How will the number of free countries change? (Total who answered each is in parentheses.)
a. minus two or worse, 87 or fewer total (6)
b. minus one, 88 total (13)
c. no change, 89 total (12)
d. plus one, 90 total (13)
e. plus two or three, 91-92 total (4)
f. plus four or more, 93 or more total (3)

The number crunchers over at Freedom House tell us it has been a bad year for freedom again this year. A total of 25 countries saw a decline in freedom level compared to 11 countries that improved.

Included in the declining countries are Mexico and Ukraine. They were "free" in 2009, but were only "partly free" last year. That means that the total number of free countries decreased by two, leaving just 87 free countries in the world and making a. minus two or worse the answer to Question #2 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz.

Ukraine suffered due to the maneuvers of President Viktor Yanukovych to crack down on the press, rig elections, and politicize the judiciary. You have to feel bad for Mexico, though, whose President Felipe Calderón has bravely but bloodily declared war on the drug mafia that operates inside Mexico. I guess being killed in drug-related violence sometimes eclipses an individual's pursuit of happiness.

The autocratic hopefuls:
Cameron L.
Ekrem
Larry
Leanne
Missy
Pete C.

Question #3: Beauty

What will Miss America’s listed talent be?
a. Singing (27 contestants, 25 quiz guesses)
b. Dancing (20 contestants, 16 quiz guesses)
c. Playing an instrument (6 contestants, 7 quiz guesses)
d. Ventriloquism (1 contestant, 3 quiz guesses)

Miss Nebraska Teresa Scanlan became Miss America on Saturday, beating out 52 other contestants. (I thought there were 54 contestants initially. I wonder who died.) Scanlan wowed the judges with her skill at the piano, playing White Water Chopped Sticks by Calvin Jones. She carried the theme into the swimsuit competition, where she emulated a piano keyboard. That makes c. Playing an instrument the answer to Question #3 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz.

Really, I don't know how the judges could deny the crown after the ventriloquism performance by Miss Arkansas. Ekrem, Ted, and Cherie would have very happily collected points.

The Instrumentalists
Paul
Ryan
Dave
Lorraine
Rachel H.
Chris M.
Valerie

Leader Board

Grizzled veteran Ekrem and callow newbie Paul are locked in a vicious battle at the top of the pile. Ekrem has handicapped himself by not submitting a tie-break answer, so he will continue to lose all ties..

Mid-year ties are broken by comparing each entrant's tie-break answer to the extrapolated end-of-year finish for the Dow based on the rate of the Dow's increase from the start of the year. This sure-fire method predicts the Dow will end 2011 at the stratospheric 17,154.

Kudos to those with an early point. Keep a special eye on 9-year-old Cameron L., who has jumped out to an early lead over his uncle Matthew (the 2009 winner) and his grandfather Ron (the 2010 winner).

2 Paul
2 Ekrem
1 Valerie
1 Ryan
1 Dave
1 Rachel H.
1 Russell
1 Marcus
1 Missy
1 Lorraine
1 Larry
1 Leanne
1 Chris M.
1 Cameron L.
1 Pete C.
0 Zoe
0 Ted
0 Collette
0 Ron
0 Jeff
0 Cherie
0 Sarah
0 Rich
0 Chris C.
0 Jan
0 Matthew
0 Tina
0 Jo
0 Beth
0 Eric
0 Grant
0 Janet
0 Todd
0 Peter B.
0 Cameron M.
0 Rachel F.
0 Zhiqi
0 Katie
0 Claire&Craig
0 Kevin
0 Michael
0 Nadir
0 Craig
0 Megan
0 Gloria
0 Keila
0 Adrian
0 Stacey
0 Ben
0 Liz
0 Ellen

2011 Prognostication Quiz, Question #1 Quiz

2011-01-11T12:38:00.004-06:00

Here again is Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz, with the number of times each answer was chosen in parentheses (also see pie chart above):

What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz?
a. A (7)
b. B (4)
c. C (8)
d. D (7)
e. E (15)
f. F (10)

The winning answer is therefore b. B. Congratulations to Marcus, Russell, Paul, and Ekrem for outsmarting the field on that one.

Marcus was influenced by a key game theory scene from a popular historical dramatic film:

"I rolled a six sided die for this one: I decided a 1 in 6 chance was better than trying to follow any set of logical instincts, in the theory that more than 1 in 6 of my friends might think like I do. After all, they've all seen the Princess Bride too."
This is a useful approach, since it eliminates any undue sway of underlying psychology and gives a true one-in-six chance at hitting pay dirt.

Russell plunged in and dared to guess at the underlying psychology in order to predict what would be the least popular answer:

"Many people know that in a four-choice multiple choice question that B and C are the most common answers. It's not clear how this applies to a six-choice question, but I extrapolated that there would be a subset of people who would think that the middle answers (BCDE) would be commonly picked. So I guessed that these people would pick A and F as uncommonly picked, so I avoided those. The remaining people apparently don't subscribe to the notion that the middle answers are commonly picked (or might have been applying reverse psychology) and so might have picked C and D of the remaining BCDE, so I also avoided these. That left B or E, and I chose B because there might have been people who avoided it because of the original notion that B and C are commonly picked. That last part was not well justified, but if the rest of my reasoning holds water, then I predict the second least common answer was E. If not, then I'll just agree I was lucky!"

I guess, then, that Russell was just lucky, since E was, in fact, the most popular answer.

Paul, on the other hand, remembered a little more detail from Psychology 101 and applied it in what seems to me to be the closest description of what was really going on:

"From Psychology, I learned that the most popular answers in a series always tend to be about 3/4 of the way through the list. Is you ask people to choose anything from A - D, or 1 - 4, and they are choosing at random, overwhelmingly they choose C (or 3). On a ten-point scale, they choose around 7. So I ruled out those answers. Then I also ruled out the first and the last, since those were rather obvious. All that left was 'b'!"

Indeed, most people picked E, which contains the 75% point if you assign 0 - 16% to A, 17 to 33% to B, etc.

And how did Ekrem choose his answer?

"I must confess it was entirely in the spelling! 'Bad' was a useful word that I initially almost rejected for fear of giving up on question 3. However, the larger message was too appealing to pass up."

With his entry, Ekrem decided to deliver a stern warning to a Swedish pop supergroup that if they misbehave they may be subjected to the uncommon medieval form of torture involving forced swallowing of inedible objects: BAD ABBA EAT LEVI'S. Using "bad" at the start forced him to guess that D. Ventriloquism would be the winner's talent at the Miss America pageant. This is unlikely, perhaps, but it is a noble sacrifice in the name of art.

Finally, speaking for those who were unable to avoid falling into the trap of human psychology of choosing answer E:

"I am quite proud of my reasoning on Question 1, as it is a tour de force of my dizzying intellect."

-Grant

2010 Prognostication Quiz: Winner!

2011-01-02T13:18:00.007-06:00

Question 12: Stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year at 11,577.51. We started the year at 10,428, so the Dow has gained 11% as the economy has clawed its way out of recession. That means that the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is over. The answer to Question 12 (What will be the year-end close for the Dow?) is F. Greater than 11,500.

The Super-Bulls:
Ryan
Gloria
Marcus
Ellen
Grant
Cherie
Rachel F.
Jeff
Peter

Ellen was the closest of all with her tie-break prediction that the Dow would end at 11,543 (off by 34.5 points). Rachel F. was second with her guess of 11,521 (off by 56.5 points). On the other end of the spectrum, Janette visualized a doomsday scenario where all thirty components of the Dow simultaneously went belly-up on December 31, plunging the index to zero. Either that or she just forgot to submit a tie-break answer.

Ryan correctly predicted that the Dow would have a banner year. With his correct stocks prediction, Ryan joins Ron again at the top of the leader board with eight points.

With the score tied at the end of regulation, we go to the tie breaking procedure. Ron was a bit more bearish than Ryan and guessed the Dow would end the year at 11,316. Ryan was was much more bullish, guessing 11,940 for the final close. The actual close of 11,577.5 means Ron missed by 261.5 while Ryan missed by 362.5. Ryan just couldn't get the final push he needed from the market. He needed the Dow to close at 11,628 or higher to defeat Ron. Ryan got agonizingly close, as the Dow rose to 11,625 mid-day on Wednesday (see graph above, clicking to zoom if desired), just 3 measly points away from pay dirt.

Our Winner!

The winner of the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is Ron, pictured here toasting his brilliant success. Ron is the father of Matthew, last year's winner. Ron is our first entrant from South Africa, and while I have never had the honor of meeting him, I have heard nothing but good things about him (assuming that "insufferable since winning the Quiz" is good). Ron correctly predicted the Freedom House report, the Oscar winner, the Pulitzer prizes, Tiger's collapse, and the Nobel Peace Prize, along with the demise of Gloria Stuart and Mitch Miller.

Our Runner-up

Ryan started the 2010 prognostication on a crazy hot streak, answering the first four questions correctly (Freedom House, Miss America, the Super Bowl, and the Academy Awards), jumping out to an unprecedented two-point lead. He stayed atop the leader board until November (advancing with the retreat of Mitch Miller, Barbara Billingsly, and Tiger Woods), when Ron passed him on the hurricane question. His comeback to tie on December 31 only to lose in the tie-break is certainly heartbreaking. And unlike Ron, Ryan will need to wait a while before his progeny (pictured above) can enter his first Prognostication Quiz.

Leader Board

In addition to Ron and Ryan, special kudos go to Gloria, Larry, and Missy, who round out the top 10%.

Gloria (like Matthew) is a friend of mine from my days as a competitive tournament bridge player. She had a great run in the second half of the Quiz starting with a two-point August predicting the downfalls of Tiger Woods and Mitch Miller.

Larry is my father and Missy is one of my sisters. (My other sister is Tina, but you will have to scroll way down on the list to find her name.) We played a lot of games in our family, which explains a lot to those of you who know us well. (My dad and sisters were my original foursome when Dad taught us bridge long, long ago when my sisters and I were in grade school.)

Rachel H. is the top finisher among my college friends, which is impressive for two reasons: first, she scored zero points last year, an impressive feat that has not happened previously or since. Second, she was so frustrated at her goose egg last year that she blew a raspberry with her answers this year: bbbbbbbbbbbb. It did pretty well for her! I already have answers from her for the 2011 Prognostication Quiz, and I'm sad to see that she has put thought into her answers again, which probably means she'll be blanked once more.

The top finisher from my extended family is my aunt Janet, who was also coming off of a poor performance in 2009, though not as poor as Rachel H. Janet has been a big cheerleader in recruiting others of my extended family members. We need 53 entrants in order to continue growing. Perhaps more of the 60+ cousins I have on my father's side want to play this year!

Peter II was the top finisher from my high school friends. Okay, he was the only finisher of my high school friends, but he still did very well considering that, like Rachel H., he submitted an artistic answer for the first quiz of the new decade: FACED DECADE ANEW, where the first 12 letters were A-F and the last three were anything. Those last three "anything" letters turned out huge for him: Peter's entry was the only one to score three points on deaths this year, correctly asserting that Barbara Billingsly, Lena Horne, and Bob Feller would hit the dust.

Craig and Adrian are not the top finishers among my college friends, but since they are also married to each other, I thought it especially felicitous that they should end up finishing so close together. Not only did they each get 5 points, but they were also eerily close in their tie-breakers: Adrian guessed 11,324 while Craig guessed 11,311.

Rounding off the top dozen are Zoe (top finisher amongst my wife's friends) and Russell (top finisher among my grad school friends).

The final standings:

1. Ron (8)
2. Ryan (8)
3. Gloria (6)
4. Larry (6)
5. Missy (6)
6. Rachel H. (6)
7. Janet (5)
8. Peter II (5)
9. Adrian (5)
10. Craig (5)
11. Zoe (5)
12. Russell (5)
13. Rich (5)
14. Matthew (5)
15. Cameron (5)
16. Marcus (5)
17. Janette (5)
18. Ellen (4)
19. Katie (4)
20. Carol (4)
21. Valerie (4)
22. Grant (4)
23. Rachel F. (3)
24. Keila (3)
25. Topher (3)
26. Polly (3)
27. Beth K. (3)
28. Eric (3)
29. Michael A. (3)
30. Beth Z. (3)
31. Cherie (3)
32. Todd (3)
33. Leanne (3)
34. Kevin (3)
35. Liz (3)
36. Stephanie (3)
37. Megan (3)
38. Pamela (3)
39. Ekrem (3)
40. Mary C. (3)
41. Chris C. (2)
42. Peter (2)
43. Ben (2)
44. Nad (2)
45. Sarah (2)
46. Mary A. (2)
47. Jan (2)
48. Jeff (2)
49. Zhiqi (2)
50. Christopher T. (1)
51. Tina (1)
52. Mike F. (1)

2011 Prognostication Quiz

The 2011 Prognostication Quiz is now live! Send in your answers by next Monday, January 10. And if you have any friends or family who like contests, send them the link! Everyone is welcome!

2011 Prognostication Quiz

2010-12-27T21:48:00.010-06:00

Entry deadline is 11 p.m. CST on January 10, 2011.
Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com.
Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter!

1. Quiz (January)

Now in its fourth year, the annual Prognostication Quiz has grown to be an international phenomenon. We'll get the Quiz off to its most rapid start yet with some group psychology.

What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz?
a. A
b. B
c. C
d. D
e. E
f. F

2. Freedom (January)

3. Beauty (January)

The Miss America pageant is held in Las Vegas in January. Each contestant must perform a talent en route to the crown. The contestants have been selected and have indicated the talents they will be showcasing (totals in parentheses).

What will Miss America’s listed talent be?
a. Singing (27)
b. Dancing (20)
c. Playing an instrument (6)
d. Ventriloquism (1)

4. Football (February)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all or will an upstart prevail?

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (New England Patriots)
b. #2 seed in the AFC (Pittsburgh Steelers)
c. #1 seed in the NFC (Atlanta Falcons)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (Chicago Bears)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team

5. Film (February)

Which picture will win filmdom's highest prize this year? They are listed below in descending odds order according to predictions website Intrade.com, which has the first two as strong co-favorites.

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?
a. The Social Network
b. The King's Speech
c. True Grit
d. 127 Hours
e. Inception
f. none of the above: some other film will win

6. Writing (April)

Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 10 years are listed (ties are possible).

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post (4)
b. The New York Times (3)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (3)
e. another paper will be named the most times (0)

7. Olympics (July)

Only three cities have bid to host the 2018 Winter Olympics. Which city will deliver the winning presentation to the International Olympic Committee?

Which city will host the 2018 Winter Olympics?
a. Annency, France
b. Munich, Germany
c. Pyeongchang, South Korea

8. Golf (August)

Tiger Woods has won 14 Major Championships in the past 14 years, but he has not won any in the past two years. Will he ever win again? Or is he washed up? Pick only one answer. (Ties are possible.)

Which Major Championship will Tiger win?
a. the Masters in April (4)
b. the US Open in June (3)
c. the British Open in July (3)
d. the PGA Championship in August (4)
e. Tiger will win no Championships

9. Peace (October)

For the past 21 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. Certain key words appear surprisingly frequently in this paragraph. Total appearances over the 21 years of each word below is indicated in parentheses. (More than one correct answer is possible.)

What key word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize?
a. “Democracy” (5)
b. “Rights” (6)
c. Any specific geographical region (6)
d. “International” (5)
e. “Peaceful” (6)
f. None of the above (4)

10. Storms (November)

11. Events (December)

Pick an interesting low-frequency event that might happen sometime this year. Each of these is listed in a contract on Intrade.com. They are each trading in the 5 – 15% range, many with very high uncertainty.

What rare event will happen in 2011?
a. The US conducts an overt military action against North Korea.
b. China conducts an overt military action against Taiwan.
c. Japan announces it has acquired a nuclear weapon.
d. Iran conducts a nuclear weapons test.
e. Osama bin Laden is captured or neutralized.
f. An internationally recognized Palestinian state is established.
g. The United Kingdom announces its intention to join the euro.
h. Any country announces its intention to drop the euro.
i. The US establishes a cap-and-trade system for emissions.
j. BP files for bankruptcy in the US.
k. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs.
l. Higgs-Boson particle is observed to a confidence of five sigma.

12. Stocks (December)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 11,500. Will the economy continue to recover, or will one of the events from the previous question lead to global economic instability and falling markets? (Note in particular that creation of Higgs-Boson particles may create a black hole that swallows the earth.)

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 10,500
b. 10,500 to 11,000
c. 11,000 to 11,500
d. 11,500 to 12,000
e. 12,000 to 12,500
f. greater than 12,500

13-15. Death (December)

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2011? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through Q were on last year's quiz and survived to tell about it, while R through Z provide fresh, young faces to this year's list. (This year's birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that 90-year-old Mickey Rooney has an 86% chance of surviving the year while 95-year-old Harry Morgan has a 77% chance of seeing 2012. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2011?
a. Harry Morgan, M*A*S*H Actor (96)
b. Yitzhak Shamir, Former Israeli Premier (96)
c. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (95)
d. Sherwood Schwartz, Brady Bunch Producer (95)
e. Kirk Douglas, Spartacus Actor (95)
f. Ernest Borgnine, Marty Actor (94)
g. Zsa Zsa Gabor, police-slapping Actress (94)
h. I. M. Pei, Louvre glass pyramid Architect (94)
i. Phyllis Diller, Comedienne (94)
j. Allan Arbus, M*A*S*H Actor (93)
k. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (93)
l. Betty Ford, Former US First Lady (93)
m. Mike Wallace, 60 Minutes Journalist (93)
n. Abigail van Buren, Advice Columnist (93)
o. Nelson Mandela, S. Africa Ex-President (93)
p. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (93)
q. Helmut Schmidt, W. German Ex-Chancellor (93)
r. Andy Rooney, 60 Minutes Journalist (92)
s. Mikhail Kalashnikov, AK-47 inventor (92)
t. Joseph Wapner, The People's Court Judge (92)
u. Sun Myung Moon, leader of the Moonies (91)
v. Henry Heimlich, you know his maneuver (91)
w. Ravi Shankar, The Beatles' sitar instructor (91)
x. John Paul Stevens, US Supreme Court, ret. (91)
y. Ray Bradbury, author of science fiction (91)
z. Mickey Rooney, Boys Town Actor (91)

For a tie-breaker: Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________

Name:___________________________________

e-mail:___________________________________

2010 Prognostication Quiz, #11 Sports

2010-12-23T16:20:00.004-06:00

The winner of Question #11 in the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is D. Southeast (FL, GA, NC, MO, TN, LA). That region has clinched the win for Question 11 despite the handful of games remaining.

As of right now, here is the final tally of overall wins for each region in the stupidest question of this year's quiz:

937 D. Southeast
846 F. Heartland
821 E. West
812 B. Pacific
770 C. Northeast
759 A. Great White North

It was a bad year for us up here in the Great White North, it seems.

The highest people up the leader board to guess the Southeast were Grant's parents, Valerie and Cameron, who were at 3 points at the last post. I am suspicious there might have been some collusion in answering, since Grant himself chose the Southeast. The only other entrant to guess that was Ben. Kudos to those four to figuring that one out, and for demonstrating that sports prognostication may have a genetic component.

We also had another unfortunate passing. Bob Feller, hall-of-fame pitcher for the Cleveland Indians, passed away last week. That makes W. Bob Feller correct for Question 13-15.

Only two people guessed that Bob Feller would pass away. The first was Peter's second answer, where he spelled "FACED DECADE ANEW" with his entry. The second was Cameron, who also got the sports question correct above.

Leader Board

Other than Cameron making a late rally and climbing quickly, the leader board is mostly unchanged from the last question, due to the low number of people who predicted the Southeast and Bob Feller and the low ranking of those who did:

8 Ron
7 Ryan
6 Missy
6 Larry
6 Rachel H.
5 Gloria
5 Peter II
5 Janet
5 Adrian
5 Craig
5 Zoe
5 Russell
5 Rich
5 Matthew
5 Cameron
5 Janette
4 Katie
4 Carol
4 Valerie
4 Marcus
3 Ellen
3 Keila
3 Topher
3 Polly
3 Beth K.
3 Eric
3 Michael A.
3 Beth Z.
3 Todd
3 Grant
3 Leanne
3 Kevin
3 Liz
3 Stephanie
3 Megan
3 Pamela
3 Ekrem
3 Mary C.
2 Cherie
2 Chris C.
2 Rachel F.
2 Ben
2 Nad
2 Sarah
2 Mary A.
2 Jan
2 Zhiqi
1 Jeff
1 Peter
1 Christopher T.
1 Tina
1 Mike F.

Just one week left in the year for the stock market! The Dow Jones is right now at 11,573. If no further deaths take place (heaven forbid), it will come down to Ron and Ryan. Ron guessed E. 11,000 to 11,500 and has 11,316 as his tie-breaker. Ryan guessed F. greater than 11,500 and chose 11,940 as his tie-breaker. Since Ron is now one point ahead, Ryan needs to win the point and win the tie-breaker as well, while Ron needs either to win the point or win the tie-breaker.

In other words, if the Dow finishes below 11,628 then Ron will win. If the Dow finishes above 11,628 then Ryan will win. Can the Dow Jones rally another 55 points in the final week to hand Ryan the victory? Or will Ron's more conservative style win out and claim a championship?

2010 Prognostication Quiz, #9 Storms and #10 Polls

2010-12-13T08:05:00.008-06:00

Question 9

In the spirit of the twelve days of Christmas, ended with twelve Atlantic hurricanes this year, making the correct answer E. 10 to 12 to Question 9 in the 2010 Prognostication Quiz. Only three people predicted this:

Ron
Kevin
Pamela

True, it was an El Nino year, but many climate scientists (including Quiz entrant Marcus, who predicted C. 6 to 7) thought that other prevailing factors would keep the total number of hurricanes down. Kudos to the three who predicted otherwise. Kevin and Pamela are having rather forgettable performances in this year's quiz, but Ron has catapulted himself back into the lead with his bold prediction.

Question 10

The Republican caucus gained 63 seats in the house and 6 seats in the Senate, making A. 40 or more seats the answer to Question 10 in 2010 Prognostication Quiz

Only a measly two people correctly predicted the scale of the GOP drubbing. One of them was my father Larry, one of our nation's most strident Republicans. The other was last year's winner Matthew, with an apparent Tocquevillesque sense of how America works despite being foreign born.

Leader Board

It's Ron leading the pack by a nose going into the final two weeks of the year! Ryan is very close, behind by a point, and followed by Missy, Larry, and Rachel H. at two behind.

8 Ron
7 Ryan
6 Missy
6 Larry
6 Rachel H.
5 Gloria
5 Janet
5 Adrian
5 Craig
5 Zoe
5 Russell
5 Rich
5 Matthew
5 Janette
4 Peter II
4 Katie
4 Carol
4 Marcus
3 Ellen
3 Keila
3 Topher
3 Polly
3 Beth K.
3 Eric
3 Michael A.
3 Beth Z.
3 Valerie
3 Todd
3 Leanne
3 Kevin
3 Liz
3 Stephanie
3 Megan
3 Cameron
3 Pamela
3 Ekrem
3 Mary C.
2 Cherie
2 Chris C.
2 Rachel F.
2 Nad
2 Sarah
2 Grant
2 Mary A.
2 Jan
2 Zhiqi
1 Jeff
1 Peter
1 Ben
1 Christopher T.
1 Tina
1 Mike F.

Question 11

No doubt the answer to this question has been pretty much determined by now. I have yet to do the calculations, however. I forgot to note the hockey and basketball standings on January 1 so that I could subtract them from the end-of-year standings. I am hoping to find a web site that will allow me to figure out the January 1, 2010 standings so I can enter them into a spreadsheet and calculate the answer.

Question 12

The Dow Jones Industrial Index is hovering right around 11,500, which is the border between answer E and F. Things could get very exciting at the end of the year, since Ron picked E and Ryan picked F. The possibility of one final, wintry death also looms large and could (with the help of Question 11) catapult even Missy, Larry, or Rachel H. into the lead. Stay tuned for an exciting finish!

Max at 18 months

2010-12-04T13:48:00.009-06:00

It was so frustrating to see interesting things from across the room and not be able to climb beneath/over/into them. I'm old enough now that I can scamper all over the house and get into anything I want to.One of my favorites is a giant jug that we use for firewood when I'm not sitting inside.My mother thinks I am very cute. (I guess I think so, too.) She likes it when I pose for pictures, so I appease her when I can.This one I rather enjoyed.I draw the line at ugly Christmas sweaters, though.My favorite thing of all is reading books, though. I have maybe 100 books at home and I try to have each one read to me every day. Sometimes I even ask for my favorites to be read twice! Or three times! Or more!It's a good thing I AM so cute!

2010 Prognostication Quiz, #8 Peace

2010-10-18T08:01:00.009-05:00

The Nobel Peace Prize 2010 was awarded to Liu Xiaobo "for his long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China" The precise wording of the announcement means Question 8 of the 2010 Prognostication Quiz has two correct answers: B. "Rights" and C. Any specific geographical region.

Twenty-three people guessed one of these answers.

The "Right makes Might" group:
Ron
Missy
Rachel H.
Larry
Adrian
Rich
Zoe
Janet
Liz
Valerie
Michael A.
Ellen
Katie
Pamela
Mary A.
Eric

The regional hypothesizers:
Russell
Marcus
Matthew
Cameron
Topher
Peter II
Rachel F.

Question 13-15. Death

B. Gloria Stewart passed away on September 27. She was a flapper in the 1920's and went on to fame amongst teenage girls 1997 with her role as "old Kate Winslet" in James Cameron's Titanic. Nineteen people thought (correctly) that anyone with a triple-digit age is a good wager:
Ron
Missy
Beth Z.
Janet
Zoe
Rich
Rachel H.
Katie
Carol
Keila
Polly
Eric
Todd
Leanne
Megan
Chris C.
Sarah
Ekrem
Gloria

E. Barbara Billingsley died this past Saturday. She was the June Cleaver on the original Leave it to Beaver television show, and re-started her career as the elderly passenger and "jive" translator from the 1980 movie Airplane. Only four people predicted her passing:
Ryan
Rachel H.
Peter II
Ben

Leader Board

Ryan (Barbara Billingsley) continues his stranglehold on first place, though Ron is only a little way back on the tie-breaker, having correctly predicted the Nobel Peace Prize as well as Gloria Stuart's end. Missy and Rachel H. keep pace one behind at six points. Former leader Craig now languishes two behind along with eight others at five points. Among the five-pointers, keep an eye on Adrian, Larry, and Russell, who are each three-for-three in the last three questions.

7 Ryan
7 Ron
6 Missy
6 Rachel H.
5 Gloria
5 Janet
5 Adrian
5 Craig
5 Zoe
5 Larry
5 Russell
5 Rich
5 Janette
4 Peter II
4 Katie
4 Carol
4 Matthew
4 Marcus
3 Ellen
3 Keila
3 Topher
3 Polly
3 Beth K.
3 Eric
3 Michael A.
3 Beth Z.
3 Valerie
3 Todd
3 Leanne
3 Liz
3 Stephanie
3 Megan
3 Cameron
3 Ekrem
3 Mary C.
2 Cherie
2 Chris C.
2 Rachel F.
2 Nad
2 Sarah
2 Grant
2 Mary A.
2 Kevin
2 Jan
2 Pamela
2 Zhiqi
1 Jeff
1 Peter
1 Ben
1 Christopher T.
1 Tina
1 Mike F.

Max goes to the Zoo

2010-09-06T20:39:00.004-05:00

I had a free afternoon with Max and not Katie recently, and I decided it would be fun to go to the zoo! Max and I drove to Apple Valley to the Minnesota Zoo and had a great time. I took a bunch of videos.

The first video I took, I had to scramble to get the camera ready to record Max's delight in running toward a large bronze statue of a turtle that is just inside one of the large indoor exhibit areas:

Yes, that's right. My son was in such a hurry to run up to the sculpture because he wanted give the turtle a big kiss on the mouth (or on the beak, I guess). Only much later did it occur to him that it might be fun to ride on the turtle's back. I'm sure his priorities will change at some point, but it's rather cute in the meanwhile.

On the day that we went to the zoo, Max had three words in his fledgling vocabulary: ball, bird, and duck. (He also learned "mama" and "dada" and "baby" but having mastered them, they no longer interested him enough to say them.) This was made a little more confusing because his pronunciation of each word consisted mostly of the initial consonant, with just a hint of the vowel sound. Effectively, "ball" and "bird" came out "bah" and the listener was left to reason out through contextual clues which Max meant. Thankfully, Max usually provided very easy-to-follow contextual clues: he would only say one of these words while pointing at the referent object. See if you can pick out what it is that Max sees here:

One problem with a three-word vocabulary is that sometimes you see something that you can't yet describe:

We ended the day in the kids room. Max's favorite thing there was a table with a bunch of metallic bugs that could be moved around by manipulating magnets underneath the tabletop. Max had no interest in controlling the magnets to make the bugs move around. He just wanted to smash the bugs.

2010 Prognostication Quiz, #7 Golf

2010-08-29T19:57:00.003-05:00

Poor Tiger. His wife was not as forgiving as Kobe Bryant's when his philandering came to light in the press. And golf is a much more a mental game than basketball. Tiger was unable to regroup after being left by his wife and children, and he was shut out of the four major championships. The last major of the season was two weeks ago, and Tiger finished tied for 28th. That means the answer to Question 7 of the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is E. Tiger will win no championships.

A whopping 31 entrants were so empathetic with Tiger's pain that they were able to predict his lassitude on the links:

Ryan
Craig
Janette
Russell
Larry
Ron
Adrian
Gloria
Missy
Mary C.
Stephanie
Matthew
Rich
Zoe
Carol
Janet
Ekrem
Cameron
Jan
Megan
Liz
Grant
Todd
Valerie
Polly
Peter II
Cherie
Mike F.
Tina
Sarah
Chris C.

The 22 of us who thought all the extramarital nookie would energize Tiger this year stand cowed and embarrassed. Ben is especially embarrassed because he is in last place with zero points and an optimistic tiebreaker.

Death

Mitch Miller passed on earlier this month. I am not old enough to have sung along with his television show in the 50's and 60's, but my parents owned several of his LP albums, so I've sung along with his orchestra over the hi-fi.

As he was the third oldest on the list, C. Mitch Miller was a popular choice. Eighteen people hated the "follow the bouncing ball" singalong technique that he popularized enough to envision his demise:

Ryan
Janette
Missy
Katie
Leanne
Carol
Zoe
Todd
Ron
Kevin
Marcus
Matthew
Ellen
Michael A.
Adrian
Jeff
Ekrem
Gloria

I pointed out last time that Stephanie was the only person to have predicted two deaths correctly. She is now joined by Marcus and Janette with special foresight in this area. Eerily, all three of these seers have taken D. Harry Morgan as their third choice. Tick-tock. Tick-tock.

Leader Board

As I said last time, the two leaders (Craig and Ryan) both thought ill of Tiger this year, but Ryan was unique in also thinking ill of Mitch. That has allowed him to pull away again from Craig.

Joining Craig in second place are Ron and Janette, who have had impressive runs.

6 Ryan
5 Craig
5 Ron
5 Janette
4 Russell
4 Larry
4 Adrian
4 Gloria
4 Missy
3 Rachel H.
3 Mary C.
3 Marcus
3 Stephanie
3 Matthew
3 Rich
3 Zoe
3 Beth K.
3 Carol
3 Janet
2 Ekrem
2 Zhiqi
2 Cameron
2 Jan
2 Megan
2 Liz
2 Leanne
2 Grant
2 Todd
2 Valerie
2 Beth Z.
2 Michael A.
2 Polly
2 Nad
2 Keila
2 Topher
2 Ellen
2 Katie
2 Peter II
2 Cherie
1 Pamela
1 Mike F.
1 Kevin
1 Tina
1 Mary A.
1 Christopher T.
1 Eric
1 Sarah
1 Rachel F.
1 Chris C.
1 Peter
1 Jeff
0 Diane
0 Ben

On Question 8, Ryan and Craig cannot separate further, as they have both chosen D. Ron, however, could catch up with B and Janette could catch up with E. None of the four-pointers (Russell, Larry, Adrian, Gloria, or Missy) picked D either, so they all have a chance to advance to second place. Who will be this year's peace paragon, and why?

2010 Prognostication Quiz, #6 Soccer

2010-07-12T14:23:00.008-05:00

FIFA World Cup

One of the two pre-tournament favorites, Spain needed two overtime periods to finally score the only goal of the game and beat the Netherlands. In one of the more bizarre human- (or mollusk-) interest stories surrounding the tournament, Paul the Octopus (pictured above) correctly picked eight World Cup games, including the final.

The answer to Question 6 of the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is therefore B. Spain.

Siete personas chose Espana to prevail:
Rachel H.
Russell
Larry
Adrian
Matthew
Grant
Ellen

That's an especially sweet point for Matthew, who won last year's quiz but has been shut out of this year's scoring until now.

Death

We've also had a spate of recent deaths. Lena Horne, Martin Gardner, and Robert Byrd have all gone on to meet their maker. (Isn't there a saying about such things coming in threes?)

This means that F, N, and P are added to correct answers to Questions 13-15.

Janette, Marcus, and Jan picked Mr. Gardner.

Mary C. and Peter II picked Ms. Horne.

Larry, Russel, Rich, Rachel F., Megan, Keila, Stephanie, and Craig picked Mr. Byrd.

Stephanie is the only person to have predicted two of the four deaths that have happened thus far. She also picked Harry Morgan to kick it in 2010. Perhaps someone should let him know that this is very likely to be his year.

Leader Board

Craig's decision that we would lose our senior Senator has allowed him finally to catch up with Ryan. I predicted that after his 4-0 start, Ryan would give in to the hubris, and that certainly seems to have come true. Given Craig's lead in the tiebreaker if trends continue to the end of the year, he has overtaken Ryan for first place on the leader board:

4 Craig
4 Ryan
3 Rachel H.
3 Russell
3 Larry
3 Beth K.
3 Ron
3 Janette
2 Mary C.
2 Zhiqi
2 Marcus
2 Stephanie
2 Rich
2 Beth Z.
2 Adrian
2 Nad
2 Janet
2 Topher
2 Keila
2 Gloria
2 Missy
1 Pamela
1 Cameron
1 Jan
1 Megan
1 Liz
1 Leanne
1 Matthew
1 Mary A.
1 Grant
1 Valerie
1 Christopher T.
1 Michael A.
1 Zoe
1 Eric
1 Polly
1 Carol
1 Rachel F.
1 Ellen
1 Katie
1 Peter
1 Cherie
0 Diane
0 Ekrem
0 Mike F.
0 Kevin
0 Tina
0 Todd
0 Sarah
0 Ben
0 Chris C.
0 Peter II
0 Jeff

Craig and Ryan will march in lockstep for the next three questions, as they both picked C, D, and E. They also both picked D on the Death question. That means Craig's only chance to advance on Ryan before November is if Sherwood Shwartz passes. Ryan will advance on Craig if Mitch Miller or Barbra Billingsley bite the big one. The six people with three points will be trying to catch up in the mean time.

After coming in dead last for 2009, Rachel H. is doing rather well for herself this year. This is all the more impressive since she blew a raspberry to inspire with her answers: she picked all B's. Three of the six questions have thus far had that answer, though, giving her three points and a high spot on the leader board. How far can she go?

Max understands language

2010-07-01T19:58:00.003-05:00

Max's aunt Tina took a video of him while she was babysitting one day. In one two-minute video she captured a lot of his most recent developmental advances, including following verbal requests. Tina asks Max to cuddle his baby and he is only too happy to oblige.

For those Max fanatics out there, I give you three additional videos taken on Max's first long-distance vacation! I had a two-day conference in Boston, so we made it a long weekend and took Max with us. He was quite good on the plane, despite our great fears: he loved looking around and only got fussy when he got tired and we were able to get him to take a nap when that happened.

My favorite part was how smitten Max was with our hosts' three-year-old daughter. He kept following her around wherever she went so that he could sneak up and give her hugs when she wasn't looking. She loved the attention at first, but she was quite ready for us to finally leave. Poor Max. Unrequited love at such a young age!

Here's Ekrem giving the kids a ride on his stomach.

Here's Max showing off his early interest in playing soccer. Are there any good under-two leagues out there?

Max is walking

2010-05-31T14:41:00.003-05:00

Max took his first steps on his birthday, when he took three half-falling steps to get from the ottoman to me sitting in a chair. Since then, he has mostly been perfecting his short-distance walking between pieces of furniture in the living room.

Last Friday, he suddenly blossomed. He discovered that he has enough balance to go long distances as long as he went relatively slowly. In the intervening week, he has gotten faster and faster. Here he is, showing off his mad skillz:

Spam from the Ancient Phoenicians

2010-05-15T10:35:00.006-05:00

Some months ago, I received this email:

Common Phoenician transportation was by means of ships. Most often Phoenicians would travel by sea on ships called galleys. Galleys ate large ships that can be used either for trade, travel or war. The Phoenicians were one of the first people to make and use galleys along with the Greeks. More than often galleys were used for transportation for trade between varios civilizations such as the Greeks, Syrians and many other civilizations.

Galleys were made from wood found in local regions in Phoenician territories. Galleys had large masts that had sails used to propel the galleys via wind power. They also included a set of oars on both sides o the ship so that oarsmen could row the ship when's winds were in unfavorable conditions. As time passed a many renovation to the galley occurred. Biremedes were introduced as an advancement on the original galley. The biremedes were a second row of oars to further increase the rowing capabilities of the galleys and increase the speed. And a later advancement was the trimede, which is three rows of oars for even more speed.

This information helps to illustrate the advancement of th Phoenician civilization.

Aj

It certainly appeared to be spam. I had no knowledge of the person sending it. It contained numerous misspellings. I was sent multiple copies of the same message. (It was sent to me three times over the course of an afternoon.) But there were no hyperlinks. Who would be sending me spam whose sole message was to tout the shipbuilding prowess of the ancient Phoenicians?

I recalled that my cousin Jillian had posted a Facebook update recently indicating that she was working on a school project involving various peoples of the ancient Mediterranean. She had drawn the Phoenicians. Was it possible that this email was intended for her? Her email address is the same as mine with a single digit appended at the end. Could my Phoenician spam have been intended for her inbox? I wrote her an email to find out:

This is quite hilarious, but I think I have deduced that this email must have been meant for you. I remember you saying in a Facebook update some time ago that you are doing a school project on the Phoenicians. Add in the fact that it really doesn't look like a spam message and that your gmail address is very close to mine (I'm sure you're jealous that I got jmandresen with no number as my username), and I bet this was intended for you.

Was I right? Or do you not know an AJ?

Your cousin,

Josh Michael

Her response:

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Oh my goodness that was for me! He said he sent it multiple times (no wonder it didn't get to me for a while!) You have quite a good memory for remembering I was doing a project on the Phoenicians... haha but yes, I was bummed I had to add the number to my email, and now I know who stole the base 'jmandresen' from me is! But really that is quite hilarious, and yes AJ was one of my group members! haha this just made my morning!

Your cousin,

Jillian

Max's Likes and Dislikes

2010-05-07T12:14:00.003-05:00

A guest blog post from my co-parent:

Max is now more than 1 year old and has clear likes and dislikes.

Max Likes:

Grape tomatoes—he seriously loves these and will eat lots and lots of them; the other day I think he went through almost a pint
Lettuce, even undressed.
Wiggling his barefoot toes in the grass, which I’ve only let him do once
Being outside
Dancing—“dancing” meaning waving his arms and twisting at the waist when any of his toys make music or other sounds, such as the rumbling of a truck’s engine, when we sing to him, or when we say “dancing”
Waving hello and goodbye to people, cars, animals, and objects—It is very exciting to Max when someone waves back, which isn’t that often because people in cars don’t usually see Max and people on foot are often past Max by the time he waves
Balls
Kissing (often sloppy open mouthed on the mouth), hugging, head-butting and biting (the head-butting and biting seem to be extensions of affection rather than something done out of frustration; I say “no biting” sternly but Max has absolutely no reaction; still working on this)
Flushing the toilet
Nursing—I won’t get into too many details here but the contrast between Max the newborn and Max the little toddler is striking. Max the newborn needed lots of assistance. Max the little toddler seems to think my breasts are sippy cups that he can take with him.
Baths
Climbing his “platform”—An activity table from Heidi with stacking cups provides a platform that Max can climb in and out of and sometimes use as a stool to get to even higher platforms, like the dining room table.
Mandarin oranges—we limit his intake of these because of the added sugar, but I don’t know that Max would ever stop eating them on his own
Hot dogs—Max tried a hot dog for the first time at Ryan and Jenny’s and made his parents proud when he swiped a hot dog from six-year-old Teddy. (We didn’t feel so bad for Teddy who was a good sport and also was on his third hot dog.)
Eating off of our hands, the floor, Max’s high chair tray, plates, toys, etc. like a dog—Max will use his pincer grip to take a piece of food and, rather than place said piece of food directly in his mouth, place the food item on the floor and then get down on his hands and knees and eat off the floor. Similarly he will take a piece of food and put it in our hands and then pull our hands to his mouth. Often the pieces of food have already been in his mouth. This is very cute and very weird.

Max Does Not Like:

Going to sleep, whether for naps or at night**
Asparagus*
Avocado*
Broccoli
Drinking—Max will only drink milk if it is mixed with juice.
Getting dressed

*Max used to like these things a short time ago.
**Max has never liked going to sleep, which explains much of our early-on (and still ongoing sometimes) exhaustion

Let's Paint the Bedroom Penis, or Maybe Gay

2010-05-06T08:10:00.004-05:00

Randall Munroe on the has performed a large experiment in color perception over at the xkcd blog. Basically, 222,500 people sat down in front of their computers and typed in the name they would ascribe to a wide panoply of monitor-produced colors. Language Log calls this "the largest scientific experiment ever run by a cartoonist."

The list at the end of the most outrageous individual entries was entertaining, but my favorite part was his analysis of the responses that occurred numerous times and in a gender-biased fashion:

Here are the color names most disproportionately popular among women:

1. Dusty Teal
2. Blush Pink
3. Dusty Lavender
4. Butter Yellow
5. Dusky Rose

Okay, pretty flowery, certainly. Kind of an incense-bomb-set-off-in-a-Bed-Bath-&-Beyond vibe. Well, let’s take a look at the other list.

Here are the color names most disproportionately popular among men:

1. Penis
2. Gay
3. WTF
4. Dunno
5. Baige

I weep for my gender.

The Logical Appeal of Vegetarianism

2010-05-04T11:25:00.002-05:00

This is the image on a new billboard that was put up over the weekend on my route to work.

My first reaction was to note that there are very obvious reasons for why our neolithic forebears domesticated chickens to eat and cats to kill rodents rather than the other way around.

That is beside the point for the ad campaign, though. The billboard's message is that we should treat chickens with the same respect as we treat cats because they are equally cute.

I finally had to concede that ad campaign raises a very good point. Changes should be made. Although my current pet cat has been spayed, a quick trip to the nearest alley with a can of tuna fish should allow me to collect enough individuals to start a breeding program. My goal will be to create a strain of fat felines with nicely marbled meat that is more suitable for human consumption.

Max turns one year old, part 2

2010-05-02T11:28:00.023-05:00

Max had lots of friends visit on Saturday:

On Sunday, the entire family came over. (Also visiting was Missy, but she was the one taking the pictures!)

2010 Prognostication Quiz, #5 Writing

2010-05-01T10:55:00.003-05:00

No, I haven't syndicated my blog with one of the nation's foremost newspapers in order to increase my commercial appeal. I am just noting that the fine folks at The Washington Post won the most Pulitzer Prizes this year, beating The New York Times by a single prize.

This means that the answer to Question #5 on the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is A. The Washington Post. Here are the Post-er boys and girls:

Ron
Craig
Beth K.
Missy
Gloria
Beth Z.
Zhiqi
Janette
Katie
Carol
Zoe
Rich
Leanne

Leader Board

Ryan's remarkable run has finally come to an end. After running off four correct prognostications in a row, he has finally showed some vulnerability. Is this a momentary lapse or the harbinger of a long, hard decline? Stay tuned to find out.

Ryan maintains his lead at the top of the pack, but Ron, Craig, and Beth K. have advanced to within one point of him. The Wall Street Journal (Ryan's pick) was rather ingloriously shut out of the prizes for a second straight year.

Interesting note: Ron (our first-ever entrant from the fine nation of South Africa) is the father of last year's winner, Matthew. This year, sadly, Matthew has yet to score a single point.

4 Ryan
3 Ron
3 Craig
3 Beth K.
2 Missy
2 Gloria
2 Topher
2 Janet
2 Nad
2 Beth Z.
2 Zhiqi
2 Rachel H.
2 Janette
1 Cherie
1 Peter
1 Katie
1 Keila
1 Carol
1 Polly
1 Adrian
1 Eric
1 Zoe
1 Michael A.
1 Larry
1 Christopher T.
1 Russell
1 Valerie
1 Mary A.
1 Rich
1 Leanne
1 Stephanie
1 Cameron
1 Pamela
1 Marcus
1 Mary C.
0 Jeff
0 Peter II
0 Chris C.
0 Ellen
0 Rachel F.
0 Ben
0 Sarah
0 Todd
0 Grant
0 Tina
0 Matthew
0 Kevin
0 Liz
0 Mike F.
0 Megan
0 Jan
0 Ekrem
0 Diane

Question 6 Update:
Next up is the FIFA World Cup in June. This is still anyone's game, but those who picked A. Brazil or B. Spain might have a slight edge, as their status as favorites seems to have grown in recent months. None of the top quartet picked A. or B., but of the folks with two points, Gloria, Beth Z., Rachel H., and Janette each picked one of the two favorites.

Question 7 Update:
Tiger Woods came very close, but failed to take first at Augusta. Most people guessed (very reasonably) that Tiger would take a little while to work back to top form this year. My aunt Diane and I were the only ones to go out on a bit of limb to guess A. The Masters. It serves us right to have now come crashing down.

Next up is the US Open in June. Again, no one in the top four picked B. The US Open, but Beth Z. and Rachel H. did, among those with two points.

Question 13-15 Update:
B. through Y. are all still alive and kicking. Who will be next to join A. Miep Gies and Z. J.D. Salinger? It's still very much anyone's game!

Max turns one year old, part 1

2010-04-22T20:57:00.009-05:00

We had a wonderful pair of parties for Max as we celebrated his first birthday. Max wore his super-cute seersucker suit. We bought the suit special for his birthday parties!

Max loves games of all sorts. Bocce ball is one of his outdoor faves.
We did birthday cake for the guests, but Max got his very own cupcake.
That way he could make as big a mess as he wanted to.

2010 Prognostication Quiz: Post #4, Film

2010-03-14T14:04:00.003-06:00

The answer to Question 4 in the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is B. The Hurt Locker. Kathryn Bigelow has put her ex-husband James Cameron and his Avatar into a hurt locker of their own. It was a dramatic moment: The Hurt Locker has the lowest box office take ever for an Oscar-winning best picture, while Avatar has become the top-grossing worldwide release of all time but fell short on Oscar night.

Even more dramatic and amazing than this, Ryan has now predicted each of the first four questions correctly. This has happened only once before, when Zoe answered Questions 3-6 correctly last year. What is entirely unprecedented, however, is Ryan's catapulting to a two-point lead over everyone else in the field. Never before has anyone had more than a one-point lead over their closest competitors.

Ryan has also been quite obnoxious in lording his recent success over the rest of us. (See the comments from the Football Post last month.) What sort of trash talk can we expect now that he has a commanding two-point lead over his closest rivals?

Here are the folks who foresaw that a bunch of big blue aliens would bow to the US army bomb squad:
Ryan
Craig
Ron
Nad
Janet
Rachel H.
Michael A.
Christopher T.
Russell
Mary A.

And here's the current overall leader board:
4 Ryan
2 Beth K.
2 Craig
2 Ron
2 Nad
2 Janet
2 Topher
2 Rachel H.
1 Beth Z.
1 Larry
1 Michael A.
1 Christopher T.
1 Russell
1 Valerie
1 Eric
1 Adrian
1 Polly
1 Mary A.
1 Keila
1 Stephanie
1 Cameron
1 Pamela
1 Marcus
1 Gloria
1 Peter
1 Cherie
1 Missy
1 Zhiqi
1 Mary C.
1 Janette
0 Zoe
0 Todd
0 Grant
0 Sarah
0 Carol
0 Ben
0 Rich
0 Matthew
0 Tina
0 Leanne
0 Kevin
0 Liz
0 Rachel F.
0 Ellen
0 Mike F.
0 Megan
0 Jan
0 Katie
0 Chris C.
0 Peter II
0 Ekrem
0 Diane
0 Jeff

Question 5 update:
Ryan picked C. The Wall Street Journal. So the rest of us will hope that another paper wins. Sad tidings for Nad, Larry, Eric, Mary A., Pamela, and others who also picked C.

Questions 13-15 update:
Not only has no one interesting died in the past month, a sobering trend is emerging. So far only five people have points for predicting a death: Eric, Stephanie, Pamela, Peter and Cherie all guessed J.D. Salinger would kick the bucket this year. Somehow, these five have combined to go 0-for-20 on the first four questions. Has Mr. Salinger placed a hex on these ne'er-do-wells?

Max is 11 months old!

2010-03-13T15:16:00.006-06:00

Car keys remain a mysterious and mystical attraction for Max.
Max demonstrates that his pajamas are too red to fit perfectly in with the burgundy tones in our upholstery (and decorating patterns in general). Daddy has long since adjusted his wardrobe to fit with the house's aesthetic.
"I have my own big-boy seat with no straps or restraints of any kind!"
Max loves throwing balls! I really didn't think I'd get to play an actual game of catch with Max until he was significantly older, but he has quite an arm already. His aim is not perfect (all the balls hit the ground a few inches from his feet and then bounce toward me), but he clearly has impressive skills. I'm sure he will grow up to be just like Kevin Youkilis or Dustin Pedroia.
"I love to splash! I take a 30-minute bath most nights so I can get a lot of splashing in every day."
"I am getting better at sharing my toys with my friends."
"I have SIX teeth now!"
"Check out my new rad wheels!"
"When, oh when, will they let me have a haircut?!?"
"SUPPERTIME!"

2010 Prognostication Quiz: Post #3 (Football)

2010-02-08T19:27:00.003-06:00

The New Orleans Saints defeated the Indianapolis Colts in a thrilling game that became the most-watched television program of all time: its 106.5 million viewers beat out the 106 million that watched the last episode of M*A*S*H in 1983. (Is this foreshadowing that one of the two cast members on our death watch will also fall soon?)

Ten percent of the entrants guessed that The Saints would come marching in:
Ryan
Beth K.
Mary C.
Zhiqi
Valerie

Leader Board

Ryan has now answered the first three questions correct to jump out to an early lead over the rest of the field. Nipping at his heels are Beth K. and Topher, each with two points:

3 Ryan
2 Beth K.
2 Topher
1 Rachel H.
1 Mary C.
1 Zhiqi
1 Marcus
1 Pamela
1 Cameron
1 Stephanie
1 Valerie
1 Beth Z.
1 Larry
1 Eric
1 Craig
1 Ron
1 Adrian
1 Polly
1 Nad
1 Janet
1 Keila
1 Peter
1 Gloria
1 Cherie
1 Missy
1 Janette
0 Diane
0 Ekrem
0 Jan
0 Megan
0 Mike F.
0 Liz
0 Kevin
0 Leanne
0 Tina
0 Matthew
0 Rich
0 Mary A.
0 Grant
0 Todd
0 Russell
0 Christopher T.
0 Michael A,
0 Zoe
0 Sarah
0 Carol
0 Ben
0 Rachel F.
0 Ellen
0 Katie
0 Chris C.
0 Peter II
0 Jeff

Last year, Tina started 3-for-3, but then she got the hubris and only got one of the final 11 questions correct. In 2008, Grant and Ekrem both answered two of the first three correctly and finished with two more of the last ten to finish strong, but out of the top quintile. How will Ryan fare this year? Will he get the hubris and irritate the gods? Or can he maintain some humility and continue to prosper?

Question 4 Update:
The Oscar race still seems to be a toss-up between A. Avatar and B. The Hurt Locker. If Avatar wins, Eric, Cherie, and Janette will advance to the tie for second place with two points, one behind Ryan. If The Hurt Locker prevails, Craig, Ron, Nad, and Janet will advance to two points, but Ryan would take an unprecedented two-point lead over everyone else in the field.

Max is Ten Months Old

2010-02-07T16:05:00.012-06:00

Max is ten months as of Tuesday. Here are some recent photos!

"I may look young, but I am quite long in the tooth."

"Butternut squash is the secret to my baby-soft complexion."

"Who dat keeps doing dat baby talk?"

"I climb stairs with alacrity."

"I discovered that I love caviar. Mommy won't let me have the champagne or petit fours with her, though."

"Daddy is my favorite because he lets me play the pull-all-the-kleenex-out-of-the-box-one-by-one game more than mommy does."

"Although sometimes I have to endure childish activities like the tedious pretend-the-baby-is-a-bunch-of-groceries game."

"I can crawl REALLY fast when I want to."

"Mommy often asks me to open up, but I always demand a quid pro quo."

"Did I mention I can crawl fast? I'm usually out of the room by the time Mommy grabs the camera."

"Although in general, I think the camera is rather kind to me."

2010 Prognostication Quiz: Post #2 (Beauty)

2010-01-31T07:52:00.006-06:00

Miss Virginia Caressa Cameron is the new Miss America. She did not deign to list merely "vocal" as her talent, choosing instead to hawk her singing talent as "vocal pop." She did not disappoint, performing pop diva Beyoncé's "Listen" from Dreamgirls.

That means that the answer to Question 2 of the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is B. Some very special variety of vocal. These folks correctly surmised that the judges would not reward just plain vocals this year:

Topher
Ryan
Janette
Rachel H.
Cameron
Beth Z.
Larry
Beth K.
Adrian
Nad

If you took part in last year's quiz, you should give three hearty cheers to Rachel H. She was shut out of the scoring last year, so her first point is particularly exciting this year.

Death

We have our first "official" passing. A. Miep Gies passed on earlier this year, but before the entry deadline, so it didn't count. But Z. J.D. Salinger met his maker last week. That made winners of five people who guessed that the famous author would cease coming through the rye sometime this year:

Pamela
Stephanie
Eric
Peter
Cherie

The breakdown of who guessed whom for the Death question fell mostly according to the actuarial tables (most people picked at least one of A, B, C, or D). Outside of that, Kirk Douglas was a popular choice, perhaps because he has had some headline-garnering health problems (including a stroke in 1996). There was lots of ill will for Billy Graham, too. Everyone was chosen at least once, promising lots of obituary-reading fun this year. Here is the breakdown of how often each person was chosen:

a Miep Gies (20)
b Gloria Stuart (20)
c Mitch Miller (18)
d Harry Morgan (13)
e Barbara Billingsley (4)
f Martin Gardner (3)
g Beverly Cleary (4)
h Sherwood Schwartz (3)
i Yitzhak Shamir (6)
j Kirk Douglas (15)
k Ernest Borgnine (7)
l Zsa Zsa Gabor (5)
m I.M. Pei (1)
n Lena Horne (2)
o Phyllis Diller (1)
p Robert Byrd (8)
q Allan Arbus (1)
r Bobby Doerr (3)
s Betty Ford (5)
t Mike Wallace (3)
u Abigail van Buren (5)
v Nelson Mandela (2)
w Bob Feller (2)
x Billy Graham (12)
y Helmut Schmidt (6)
z J.D. Salinger (5)

Over the two previous years of the quiz, I've had two or three people either try to spell things or make other fun patterns with their answers. With the added alphabetic flexibility at the end of this year's quiz, I had high hopes. Rachel H. gave me a nice raspberry (bbbbbbbbbbbbb), which scored her a point on the Beauty question, but Peter wins the overall award for most aesthetic set of answers. He first submitted a normal entry, but then wrote back to ask that I use his celebration of the first Prognostication Quiz of this decade:

FACED DECADE ANEW

I decided that it was so nice, I let him keep his old answer, too. Peter therefore has a double chance of winning in theory, though he's 0-for-2 so far with his second set of answers.

Leader Board

We have a two-way tie for first place! Both Topher and Ryan have gone 2-for-2 in the first two questions.

2 Topher
2 Ryan
1 Rachel H.
1 Marcus
1 Pamela
1 Cameron
1 Stephanie
1 Beth Z.
1 Larry
1 Eric
1 Beth K.
1 Craig
1 Ron
1 Adrian
1 Polly
1 Nad
1 Janet
1 Keila
1 Gloria
1 Peter
1 Cherie
1 Missy
1 Janette
0 Diane
0 Mary C.
0 Ekrem
0 Zhiqi
0 Megan
0 Mike F.
0 Liz
0 Kevin
0 Leanne
0 Tina
0 Matthew
0 Rich
0 Mary A.
0 Grant
0 Todd
0 Valerie
0 Russell
0 Christopher T.
0 Michael A.
0 Zoe
0 Sarah
0 Carol
0 Ben
0 Rachel F.
0 Ellen
0 Katie
0 Chris C.
0 Peter II
0 Jeff
0 Jan

My new sorting rule for the leader board is based on the tiebreaker. If the current annual change in the Dow is extrapolated to the end of the year, the order people are listed within each total score is the order in which they would win the eventual tiebreaker.

Question 3 Update

The Super Bowl is next weekend, and for the first time in 16 years, both number one seeds have reached the big game. It will be A. New Orleans Saints vs. C. Indianapolis Colts. Of those atop the leader board (with one or two points), Ryan and Beth K. picked the Saints while Pamela, Larry, Eric, Polly, Nad, Janet, Keila, and Peter picked the Colts. If the Saints win on Sunday, Ryan will have first place all to himself with three points. If the Colts win, then we will have a ten-way tie for first with two points each. That's quite a big swing!

Question 4 Update

As the Oscars approach and academy members leak their votes, it seems to be coming down to a close race between A. Avatar and B. The Hurt Locker. Remarkably, Ryan has a good chance to win this one, too, and go 4-for-4 to start the year! He picked The Hurt Locker, which seems to be only a slight underdog to the Golden Globe winner Avatar (with E. Up in the Air a dark horse contender). Those currently on the leader board who picked Avatar include Eric, Cherie, and Janette while Rachel H., Nad, Ron, Craig, and Janet have picked The Hurt Locker.

Max Pulls Himself Up

2010-01-30T15:21:00.004-06:00

We used to have a large coffee table in our living room that had lots of sharp corners. Now that Max is more mobile, we decided to swap in something smaller (giving him more room to maneuver) and softer. The ottoman we chose has nice storage for toys, too.

A few days back, Max was playing around and climbed into the storage bin all by himself. He seemed quite delighted in the chest and played in there for quite some time. I caught video toward the end of this. In addition to being cute while sitting and playing, watch for some of his other current cute moves. At 1:55, he demonstrates how much he loves hearing his voice modulated. We provide a hand to help him out. At 3:15 Max shows how good he is at pulling himself up to stand against a piece of furniture. He is also quite adept at climbing stairs. It's all happening so fast! He had just started crawling a couple weeks ago!

Recent Max Videos

2010-01-21T08:19:00.003-06:00

My sisters took some fun videos of Max playing some of his favorite games over Christmas. He was really into shaking things that week:

But his favorite thing of all (which remains true to this day) is walking. He can't do that on his own yet, but he loves cajoling his parents, aunts, uncle, grandparents, friends, and occasional strangers in off the street to hold his hands and walk with him:

Recent Max Photos

2010-01-17T20:29:00.007-06:00

I have no idea why I was reading Max something from Martha Stewart Living magazine, but Katie thought it was photo-worthy.
Max takes his first sled ride! Katie really likes dressing Max up in animal clothes. She begged me to buy all manner of animal outfits for everyday indoor wear, but I put my foot down and said that I could tolerate Max being dressed up like an animal only for (a) Halloween or (b) winter outerwear. Katie takes full advantage of the latter and routinely dresses Max up in a monkey hat under his bear snowsuit. All told, Max has six ears in this photo.
A nice before . . .
. . . and after of Max chowing down on some yogurt.
"Food makes me sooooo happy!!!"

2010 Prognostication Quiz: Post #1 (Freedom)

2010-01-11T16:26:00.002-06:00

The 2010 Prognostication Quiz gets off to a quick start with Question 1. The Freedom House issued its annual press release today regarding the number of free countries in the world. Although the main headline reports that freedom declined this year, the number of completely "free" countries remains unchanged at 89. (It was a number of lower countries in the "partly free" category who did most of the regressing.)

This means the answer to Question 1 is C. No change. Ten of this year's 53 entrants got that answer correct (listed here in entry order):
Topher
Polly
Gloria
Ryan
Marcus
Missy
Ron
Janet
Craig
Keila

Congratulations to the top ten! Special congratulations to Janet and Ryan, who have already equaled their total score from last year! It must be a great relief to them to know that they can't do worse than last time.

On balance, our group of entrants was more optimistic than pessimistic: 25 thought the number of "free" countries would grow to only 17 who thought it would shrink.

I have many more interesting things to say about the entrants and the answers submitted, but I am out of time right now and will therefore wait until the next post!

Question 13 Update:
Miep Gies passed away yesterday. Unfortunately (for us, anyway) she passed on before the entry deadline of 11:10 p.m. That means that it doesn't count, and the NINETEEN of you who picked her will need to pick someone else. You get honorable mention for coming a few hours from earning a point:
Katie
Beth Z.
Beth K.
Kevin
Liz
Gloria
Rachel F.
Ben
Ekrem
Jan
Nad
Missy
Stephanie
Mary A.
Ron
Leanne
Janet
Valerie
Zoe

Question 11 Update:
I wrote question 11 in response to people who thought I had too many sports-related questions on the Quiz. Instead of having separate questions for baseball, hockey, and basketball, I thought I would merge them all into one question. To make sure the question was balanced, I took each state's win totals for the 2008 (baseball) or 2008-2009 (hockey and basketball) seasons and put them in a spreadsheet. Then I wanted to split them into six answer such that (1) each answer had approximately the same number of wins and (2) that each group could be put into one contiguous region separate from each other group. This was quite a puzzle and took me quite some time. I finally figured out how to make the groups so that the top and bottom groups were only 5% different from each other. By the time I finished, though, I decided that it's not such a good question since there's really no intuitive sense for which region might outperform any other region. Actually doing the calculations would be too annoying for anyone to attempt. If you did try, though, you would have discovered that as I printed the answers, F. Heartland is about 60% more likely than D. Southeast and about 30% more likely than any of the other answers. That's because Missouri was supposed to be in the Southeast rather than in the Heartland. Additionally, I omitted Maryland in the answers (but not in my original spreadsheet). Two eagle-eyed observers (Adrian and Grant) noted the latter fact, and I think Adrian figured out the former as well. Grant didn't indicate what he did or didn't notice there, but he did rather suspiciously also pick F.

I'm going to take my prerogative as game master and just change the answers. Missouri will jump from the Heartland to the Southeast (it does border Tennessee, after all) and Maryland will join the Northeast. If anyone (Adrian? Grant?) feels that this greatly disrupts their answer, please let me know soon and I will let you change.

Cover art:
The butterfly image was the first picture with no words on it that came up in a Google Image search for "Freedom." It's from an entomology site. I guess it's called "Freedom" because the poor butterflies hate being imprisoned inside those tiny little cocoons?

Catch Up with Your Wife

2010-01-11T16:22:00.004-06:00

Facebook very helpfully requests that I reconnect with people whom I haven't spoken to in some time. This is today's example (click for larger image):

Max is Crawling!

2010-01-10T16:12:00.003-06:00

Max has been on the verge of crawling for a month or so. He's gotten as far as a few crawl-steps before falling back on his stomach and reverting to his sliding motion to propel himself. I've repeatedly explained to him how much more efficient it would be to stay on his hands and knees, but he's stuck with his one-armed army crawl for his everyday mobility needs.

Another fun thing that Max loves to do is to knock things down. He got a fun set of foam blocks from Santa and he loves to knock down the towers that Daddy (or other big people) build for him. If he sees any stacked structure from across the room, he understands his important responsibility to the family and makes a bee line to knock down the unmolested tower.

This morning I was cleaning a bit of the basement as Max napped and came across some old scientific posters that I didn't need any more. I thew the posters out, but thought that the cardboard tube that contained the posters would be a fun toy for the baby. Max did enjoy playing with the tube (putting his arm in it, dropping balls through it, singing into it to hear his voice modulate, etc.) when I had an idea for a new game. Max enjoyed it so much that I decided to take a video:

After delightfully knocking over the soccer ball at the top of the cardboard tube, Max crawls to retrieve the soccer ball. Yes, he crawled for the first time (that I've seen him, anyway) and I happened to catch it on video! I counted twelve full crawl steps and maybe a thirteenth at the end before he gets the coveted soccer ball.
It won't be too much time before he's walking and then not much longer after that when he'll be shaving and then he'll be so close to getting his Ph.D. Time sure flies!

2009 Prognostication Quiz: Final Post

2009-12-31T16:49:00.004-06:00

Matthew Wins!

Matthew D. has won the 2009 Prognostication Quiz! He correctly guessed the two December questions to leapfrog over Ted in order to claim the prognostication championship. Matthew ended with a final score of 8, beating out Ted by one point.

The tie-break was not needed this year, but Matthew crushed the competition in that category as well. The total snowfall for the year in Minneapolis-Saint Paul was 47.0 inches. Matthew had 47.3 inches as his tie-break guess. That was the closest guess among all 43 entrants. I was second with a guess of 46.2 inches and my aunt Ellen was third with a guess of 46.0 inches.

Poor Rachel H. ended the year with no points. That's the first time that has been done in the two years of the quiz. I'll find a booby prize to send to her to encourage her to enter again this year despite the horrible embarrassment.

Leader board

Here are the final rankings, sorted by total score and then by the tie break:

Rank Name (Score)
1 Matthew (8)
2 Ted (7)
3 Larry (6)
4 Zoe (6)
5 Pete C. (6)
6 Michael (5)
7 Stephanie (5)
8 Ben (5)
9 Ellen (4)
10 Tina (4)
11 Grant (4)
12 Katie (4)
13 Missy (4)
14 Jeff B. (4)
15 Marcus (4)
16 Ana (4)
17 Kevin (4)
18 Jan (4)
19 Adrian (4)
20 Leanne (4)
21 Ekrem (4)
22 Russell (3)
23 Heather (3)
24 Pamela (3)
25 Liz (3)
26 Gloria (3)
27 Peter M. (3)
28 Cameron (3)
29 Zhiqi (3)
30 Rob (3)
31 Sarah (3)
32 Jeremiah (3)
33 Greg (3)
34 Rachel F. (2)
35 Megan (2)
36 Eric (2)
37 Jeff C. (2)
38 Beth (2)
39 Valerie (1)
40 Janet (1)
41 Ryan (1)
42 Janette (1)
43 Rachel H. (0)

This is the second year in a row that a Matthew has won the prognostication quiz. The inaugural quiz went to Matthew B., who did not enter this past year.

Leanne tied her husband Ekrem with 4 points but edged him in the tie break. She guessed that 83.0 inches of snow would fall in 2009, so she was off by 36 inches. Ekrem guessed that 10.0 inches of snow would fall, so he was off by 37 inches. (Unsurprisingly, they were the maximum and minimum of all the tie break answers. More surprisingly, Adrian was close at the top with a guess of 81.8 inches and Greg was close at the bottom with 12.0 inches.)

The best combined score for the two year quiz is a tie between Matthew D. and Pete C., each with 11 points over the two years. Tied for third place are Grant and Ekrem, each with 8 points. Tied for fifth place are Ted, Tina, and Eric with a total of 7 points.

Question 13

The Dow shed 120 points today, but the close of 10,428 was still comfortably in the range of F. 10,000 points or more. Six people predicted that the Dow would gain 20% on the year: Matthew, Larry, Jeff B., Marcus, Rob, Jeff C. I sincerely hope they put their entire savings into the market last January. (You can tell I'm sincere because Larry is my father.)

Question 14

After no snow in November, we had 20.9 inches in December to make it pretty close in the end. A total of 47.0 inches of snow fell over 2009 at the Minneapolis-Saint Paul airport. The airport got 10 inches of snow in the big storm system we had last week, but some suburbs very close by got between 16 and 18 inches. If just two more inches of snow had fallen at the airport, Larry would have won the 2009 Quiz. A total of six people guessed C. 43 to 48.9 inches: Matthew, me, Ellen, Ana, Russell, and Greg.

2010 Prognostication Quiz

Don't forget to send in your entry for this year's quiz!

Max's First Christmas

2009-12-30T19:10:00.014-06:00

Per our usual tradition, we spend Christmas Eve with Katie's family and Christmas Day with my family. These are my favorite pictures of the holidays:

Auntie Laura and Max.
Grandma June and Max.
Grandpa Tom and Max.
Max is super excited to open his first present! He loved ripping the paper off the presents. The actual gift was often quite anticlimactic. (Click for a larger view of Max's ecstatic smile.)
Mom & Dad & Max pose for the camera.
Dad's pose and facial expression remain frozen while Mom & Max branch out.
Grandma Cherie and Dad and Max.
Auntie Tina thinks that as long as she watches her margarita carefully, she will be able to keep Max from disrupting it while she pretends it's actually Max's drink.
Auntie Tina is shocked to see how fast Max moves. (We had to clean the liquor from his hand to keep him from sucking on it.)
Max is transfixed by the whirring noise and music and flying plastic balls from Missy and Tina's present.
Uncle Jeremiah and Max.
Mom loves putting Max into baskets. Max tolerates this because he loves her more than anything (including Dad).
Tired but happy, Max reads a bedtime book (a present from Santa) before hitting the sack.

2010 Prognostication Quiz

2009-12-29T21:17:00.009-06:00

An annual holiday tradition dating back to December 2007, The Prognostication Quiz experienced exponential growth in entrants from its first year to its second. Help the trend continue! Send 15 answers plus one tie-breaker to jmandresen at gmail. The winner receives an overstuffed gift bag full of wondrous goodies! The deadline for entries is 11:10 p.m. on January 11, 2010

1. Freedom (January)

How will the number of free countries change?

a. minus two or worse (2), 87 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 88 total
c. no change (3), 89 total
d. plus one (3), 90 total
e. plus two or three (2), 91-92 total
f. plus four or more (3), 93 or more total

2. Beauty (January)

What will Miss America’s listed talent be?

a. “Vocal” only (14)
b. Some very special variety of vocal (10)
c. Dance (19)
d. Playing an instrument (8)
e. Playing piano AND singing (1, NH)
f. Stereotype special: Baton Twirl (1, AR)

3. Football (February)

The conference each plays in and the playoff seed is indicated.

Who will win the Super Bowl?

a. #1 NFC Seed (New Orleans Saints)
b. #2 NFC Seed (Minnesota Vikings)
c. #1 AFC Seed (Indianapolis Colts)
d. #2 AFC Seed (San Diego Chargers)
e. another NFC team
f. another AFC team

4. Film (March)

Oscar nominations do not come out until February 2, but the Golden Globe nominees for Best Drama (listed below) often include the Oscar winner for best picture.

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?

a. Avatar
b. The Hurt Locker
c. Inglourious Basterds
d. Precious
e. Up in the Air
f. none of the above: some other film will win

5. Writing (April)

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?

a. The Washington Post (4)
b. The New York Times (3)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (3)
e. another paper will be named the most times (0)

6. Soccer (June)

The world’s most popular sport has its championship every four years. Who will win while the US yawns?

Who will win the FIFA World Cup?

a. Brazil
b. Spain
c. Another primarily Spanish-speaking country
d. A primarily English-speaking country
e. A primarily German- or French-speaking country
f. None of the above

7. Golf (August)

Tiger Woods has won 14 Major Championships in the past 13 years, but he was shut out in 2009. Will his recent spate of extramarital sex energize or distract him this year? Will he even play in the Masters? The number of total times he has won each event is indicated. (Ties are possible.)

Which Major Championships will Tiger win?

a. the Masters in April (4)
b. the US Open in June (3)
c. the British Open in July (3)
d. the PGA Championship in August (4)
e. Tiger will win no Championships

8. Peace (October)

For the past 20 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. Certain key words appear surprisingly frequently in this paragraph. Total appearances over the 20 years of each word below is indicated in parentheses. (More than one correct answer is possible.)

What key word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize?

a. “Democracy” (5)
b. “Rights” (5)
c. Any specific geographical region (5)
d. “International” (5)
e. “Peaceful” (6)
f. None of the above (4)

9. Storms (November)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were three hurricanes in 2009, eight hurricanes in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, nine in 2004, and seven in 2003. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the last 12 years)?

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?

a. 3 or less
b. 4-5
c. 6-7
d. 8-9
e. 10-12
f. 13 or more

10. Polls (November)

Historically, the party that wins the White House loses seats in Congress for the midterm elections. (For example, the Presidential party has lost an average of 17 seats in the House during mid-term elections since World War II.) How will the Democratic caucuses change in the US House and Senate on Election Day?

How many seats will the Democrats lose?

a. 40 or more seats
b. 30 to 39 seats
c. 20 to 29 seats
d. 10 to 19 seats
e. 0 to 9 seats
f. none of the above (they will GAIN seats)

11. Sports (December)

The NFL has a 16-game season and a 4-game playoff culminating in the highest rated television event each year. Meanwhile, an NBA or an NHL team plays 82 regular season games and might play 28 playoff games. An MLB team plays 162 regular season games and might play 20 playoff games. What region will have the most number of total wins in the regular season and playoffs in these endurance sports?

Which region will have the most basketball, hockey, and baseball wins in 2010?

a. Great White North (Canada, MN, WI, MI)
b. Pacific (CA, OR, WA)
c. Northeast (MA, NY, NJ, MD, DC)
d. Southeast (FL, GA, NC, MO, TN, LA)
e. West (CO, UT, AZ, OK, TX)
f. Heartland (IL, IN, OH, PA)

12. Stocks (December)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 10,500. Will the index continue its meteoric rise this year, or will it run out of steam? (Sorry about the mixed metaphors.)

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?

a. under 9,500
b. 9,500 to 10,000
c. 10,000 to 10,500
d. 10,500 to 11,000
e. 11,000 to 11,500
f. greater than 11,500

13-15. Death (December)

Which of these celebrities will kick the bucket in 2010? You get THREE guesses on this one. (Their next birthdays are indicated. If you pick someone who buys the farm before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2010?

a. Miep Gies, Shelterer of Anne Frank (101)
b. Gloria Stuart, Titanic Actress (100)
c. Mitch Miller, Swing Era Bandleader (99)
d. Harry Morgan, M*A*S*H Actor (95)
e. Barbara Billingsley, Airplane! Actress (95)
f. Martin Gardner, Mathematician and Author (96)
g. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (94)
h. Sherwood Schwartz, Brady Bunch Producer (94)
i. Yitzhak Shamir, Former Israeli Premier (95)
j. Kirk Douglas, Spartacus Actor (94)
k. Ernest Borgnine, Marty Actor (93)
l. Zsa Zsa Gabor, police-slapping Actress (93)
m. I. M. Pei, Louvre glass pyramid Architect (93)
n. Lena Horne, Stormy Weather Singer (93)
o. Phyllis Diller, Comedienne (93)
p. Robert Byrd, oldest guy in the US Senate (93)
q. Allan Arbus, M*A*S*H Actor (92)
r. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (92)
s. Betty Ford, Former US First Lady (92)
t. Mike Wallace, 60 Minutes Journalist (92)
u. Abigail van Buren, Advice Columnist (92)
v. Nelson Mandela, S. Africa Ex-President (92)
w. Bob Feller, Cleveland Indians Pitcher (92)
x. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (92)
y. Helmut Schmidt, W. German Ex-Chancellor (92)
z. J.D. Salinger, Catcher in the Rye Author (91)

For a tie-breaker: Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________

Name:___________________________________

e-mail:___________________________________

The Pacifier Game

2009-12-04T13:41:00.003-06:00

Max likes to play with his pacifier. It's a handy toy that he can carry around with him in his mouth. When he's playing with it, he manipulates it with his hands and sucks on it from all different angles. Sometimes I steal it from him. He knows it's his, though, and grabs it right back.

2009 Prognostication Quiz: Question 12 of 14, Storms

2009-11-30T09:16:00.003-06:00

Hurricane season has ended. Only Bill, Fred, and Ida made it to hurricane status this year, which means that the answer to Question 12 of the 2009 Prognostication Quiz is A. 5 or less. As I wrote last time, this has been a foregone conclusion for some time.

More interesting now is the latest on the last questions 13 (Stocks) and 14 (Snow). November has seen a continued rally in the Dow, pushing the average over the 10,000 point mark. If it dips back down below 10,000, Ted will win. If it stays above 10,000 then things become interesting. In that case, Ted and Matthew will be tied at 7 points while Larry will have 6. Here is the key Question 14:

How much snow will fall in Minnesota?
a. Fewer than 34 inches
b. 34 to 42.9 inches
c. 43 to 48.9 inches
d. 49 to 57.9 inches
e. 58 to 69.9 inches
f. 70 inches or more

The tiebreaking question is also based on Question 14, asking for a precise number of inches of snowfall. Ted guessed E with a tiebreak of 59.0 inches. Larry guessed D with a tiebreak of 56.5 inches. Matthew guessed C with a tiebreak of 47.3 inches.

Matthew is elated that Minneapolis got NO SNOW AT ALL in November. This is highly unusual: the average snowfall is 7.4 inches for the month.

The total snowfall to date is 26.1 inches. (Average snowfall January to November is 41.5 inches.) Since the area is so far below average snowfall, Matthew is sitting pretty, as he has the lowest guess on the snow.

This all presumes that the Dow stays above 10,000:

Matthew will win if the total snowfall is 49 inches or less. That means he needs 22.8 inches of snowfall or less in December. In the past 124 Decembers, that has happened 94% of the time.

Larry will win if the total snowfall is between 49 and 57.7 inches. That means he needs between 22.9 and 31.6 inches of snow in December, a 5% chance.

Ted will win if the yearly snowfall is 57.8 inches or higher, which would be at least 31.7 inches in December. That has happened just once in the past 124 years (in 1970). Realistically, Ted needs the Dow to get back below 10,000 in order to win.

Full Leaderboard

I have had a request for a full leader board. Here it is, with two questions remaining, sorted descending by score and ascending by tiebreak:

Score Name
7 Ted
6 Matthew
6 Zoe
6 Pete C.
5 Larry
5 Stephanie
5 Ben
4 Ekrem
4 Michael
4 Tina
4 Grant
4 Katie
4 Missy
4 Kevin
4 Jan
4 Adrian
4 Leanne
3 Ana
3 Zhiqi
3 Jeff B.
3 Gloria
3 Heather
3 Ellen
3 Pamela
3 Liz
3 Peter M.
3 Marcus
3 Cameron
3 Sarah
3 Jeremiah
2 Greg
2 Beth
2 Megan
2 Russell
2 Rachel F.
2 Eric
2 Rob
1 Valerie
1 Janet
1 Ryan
1 Janette
1 Jeff C.
0 Rachel H.

2009 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 11 of 14, Baseball

2009-11-05T10:22:00.004-06:00

The Yankees ~~Suck~~ Win! They bested the Phillies in the World Series last night, which means that the answer to Question 11 of the 2009 Prognostication Quiz is C. American League in 6 games.

Answer C was by far the most popular answer for Question 11, chosen by 18 of the 43 entrants:

Pete C.
Zoe
Larry
Ben
Stephanie
Adrian
Michael
Missy
Jan
Kevin
Leanne
Ellen
Zhiqi
Sarah
Cameron
Russell
Greg
Eric

Eliminations

Four people were eliminated by question 11:
Ekrem
Pamela
Ana
Jeremiah

And while the hurricane season doesn't officially end until the end of the month (and despite Ida's upgrade to hurricane strength), we would still need three more hurricanes to get out of answer A. I can tentatively eliminate these five (though a miraculous concentration of hurricane activity this month would resurrect some):
Stephanie
Grant
Missy
Tina
Leanne

Leaderboard

That brings us down to just five people with a chance of winning based on Question 13 (Dow Jones Index) and Question 14 (Minnesota Snowfall):

7 Ted
6 Matthew
6 Pete C.
6 Zoe
5 Larry

Zoe was tied with her husband Ted until he pulled away on Question 9, but she has stayed within striking distance. To win, though, she needs the Dow to drop back below 8500, which doesn't seem likely. Pete C. has had an impressive run, too, but he would also need the Dow to fall quite a bit (to under 9000). Additionally, both Pete and Zoe picked E on question 14 along with Ted, so they will need tiebreaking help, too.

My father, Larry, has had the longest run of any member of my family in this year's quiz (my three siblings were eliminated with the current question), but he is a very dark horse. He needs to get both of the final answers correct just to tie Ted and then has to best him in the tiebreaker.

Most likely, then, this has come down to a final fight between Ted and Matthew. Ted will win outright (no need for tiebreaking) if the Dow ends the year where it is right now (between 9500 and 10,000). If the Dow continues to climb and ends the year over 10,000, Matthew has the advantage because he picked a lower snowfall amount (Minnesota has had less than average snowfall to date) which makes him more likely to win either by getting both answers correct or by winning the tiebreaker. It should be an exciting finish! Hold on to your hats!

The Basement

Sadly, Rachel H. did not correctly predict the World Series result and thus seems rather unlikely to win even a single point in this year's quiz. She would need either a precipitous drop in the Dow or a slightly above average year of snowfall for Minnesota. If she holds on, she would beat the current record holder for low score in a quiz. (I have the dubious distinction of having scored just one point last year.) Rachel's feat would be all the more impressive since there are two additional questions this year, too. Go, Rachel, go!

Max the Lion

2009-11-04T16:25:00.011-06:00

For Max's first Halloween, Katie and I had some difficulty agreeing on a costume. My only absolute requirement was that it had to be a mammal. (Cute and furry was just too irresistible for me.) Katie was fonder overall with lobster or frog or one of a variety of invertebrates but relented to my one request. Of the mammals, the lion with the colorful mane was my favorite as well. Katie initially resisted, but eventually bowed to my enthusiasm.
It turned out to be a somewhat controversial decision. My sisters in particular thought it was a poor choice. I still think it was a winner. Look how cute:
Then we took Max to our next door neighbors and across the street to let him show off his cuteness.
At the last stop, he showed off his highly advanced grabbing capabilities.

Step one: See the candy.
Step two: Grab the candy.
Step three: Put candy in mouth.
Step four: Throw candy on the floor. (It doesn't taste so good with the wrapper still on, anyway.)

Max in Three Acts

2009-10-24T19:08:00.003-05:00

We wanted to take some simple video of Max being cute, but then he decided to stage an entire drama in three acts:

Max's First Snow

2009-10-20T09:52:00.006-05:00

Max had his first snow in early October. We bought him a snowsuit that we thought he would grow into. He still has some growing to do.
Max absolutely loved the snow! He kept smiling and laughing and looking straight up at the sky, for some reason. Usually he likes looking at the camera, but not that day!You can see the sad snow-covered mums we brought to brighten up our fall doorstep and the orange pumpkin we'll carve for Halloween is peeking out from behind Max. The snow caught us a little by surprise, but what fun!

Max rolls over

2009-10-13T10:03:00.005-05:00

We are officially halfway through Max's first year. He had his six-month checkup yesterday and is hale and hearty aside from the vaccination shots he received.Most impressively, Max now has (a) amazing manual dexterity along with (b) astounding physical strength. Watch him demonstrate this as he (a) plays with his pacifier and (b) rolls over onto his stomach! (He had already mastered rolling over from his stomach onto his back.) He also flashes some of his winning smiles.

2009 Prognostication Quiz: Post 10 of 14, Peace

2009-10-09T07:44:00.003-05:00

Obama Wins!

In an unexpected move, Barack Obama has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. He won "for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples."

No "development of nuclear democracy rights in the Middle East" means that the answer to Question 10 of the 2009 Prognostication Quiz is F. None of the above.

Five people suspected that A through E had already been overemphasized by the committee in the past and guessed that the Nobel committee would break ties with the past:
Ted
Matthew
Larry
Ana
Missy

These five may have figured that answer F was the smart bet because this is the fourth year in a row now where "none of the above" is correct for this set of buzz words. (Stay tuned for the 2010 Quiz, which will have an updated set of buzz words.)

Eliminations

This was a brutal round for eliminations. Sixteen people (37% of the field) were eliminated with question 10:

Katie
Ben
Liz
Heather
Michael
Peter M.
Gloria
Kevin
Jeff B.
Jan
Marcus
Adrian
Ellen
Beth
Rob
Megan

Good luck next year!

Leaderboard

We now have just 14 people who have a chance at winning. Below is the leaderboard (ranked by total points and then sorted by likelihood of winning). Along with total points, I listed the remaining four answers for those still in the running:

7 bcee Ted
6 adfc Matthew
5 cdde Pete C.
5 ccbe Zoe
4 fbdb Grant
4 abad Tina
4 cbfd Larry
4 cece Stephanie
4 xxxx Katie
4 xxxx Ben
3 aaaa Ekrem
3 dbcc Ana
3 fbdd Pamela
3 cbcd Missy
3 ebcf Jeremiah
3 cbaf Leanne

Ted and Matthew are now neck and neck at the top, with Pete C. and Zoe not far behind. We have an exciting finish yet to come. Ted and Matthew chose identical answers for six of the first ten questions, but they differ from each other for each of the remaining four questions. Who will win? It might come down to the tiebreaker. Stay tuned!

Question 11 Update
The playoffs have started, but this question is still pretty much a toss-up. Tune in starting October 28.

Question 12 Update
Only two hurricanes so far this season! That makes A the highly probable answer, since we would need four more hurricanes to get to answer B or beyond. Never have there been more hurricanes in October and November than in the hurricane season up to that point. Ekrem was the only person to pick A, and perhaps only because he chose his answers from a primal scream. It seemed like an odd way to choose answers when he submitted them, but he has surpassed most of the field and is climbing up the leader board.

Question 13 Update
The Dow right now is smack in the middle of answer E, but it may continue to rally. I think E or F are the most likely answers at this point.

Question 14 Update
The people who guessed A, B, or C still probably have a slight advantage over the others, based on the lighter than average snowfall in the first half of the year.

Our Wedding Video

2009-10-03T13:58:00.003-05:00

To celebrate our two-year, four-month anniversary, here is a series of clips from our wedding.

All the work that went into the video was a wonderful wedding gift from my aunt and uncle, Jay and Diane. (My cousin Lara helped with some camera work, too.) It was a very special gift and Katie and I are very grateful!

I've broken it into 26 clips:

Prelude

We had a lot of fun picking the readings and the song. A huge thanks to our readers and singers and officiant!

Procession and Introduction
First Reading: For Whom the Bell Tolls
Second Reading: I Do I Will I Have
Song: Love Changes Everything
Third Reading: The Velveteen Rabbit

Vows

We each wrote our own vows, and we didn't share them until we were standing together in front of our friends and family. We did, however, give each other very general descriptions of the tone we were going for. That let us figure out that Katie should start and I should finish.

Introduction to Vows
Katie's Vows
Michael's Vows
Mutual Vows
Exchange of Rings
"You May Kiss"

Toasts

We had an embarrassment of riches here. Sorry to everyone who sat so long with no bathroom breaks! And a great thanks to all the wonderful and heartwarming toasts. We are blessed to have such wonderful (and hilarious) friends and family!

Dinnertime Montage
Jeremiah's Toast
Tina's Toast
Missy's Toast
Larry's Toast
Heidi's Toast
Beth's Toast
Adrian's Toast
Liz & Jeff's Toast
Victor's Toast
Ekrem's Toast
Sandy's Toast
Laura's Toast
June's Toast

First Dance

When we discovered a couple months before the wedding that we each knew a few swing moves, we took a bunch of frantic lessons to try to quickly improve. We spent the most time on our final flourish, and I think it shows!
First Dance

Max's Play Dates

2009-09-05T16:21:00.016-05:00

Max has already had two friends of similar age to have play dates with. His first play date was with Griffin, back in July.Max was in a bit of a mellow mood, but Griffin was quite rambunctious!
A couple weeks ago, Max met Brennan for the first time. We put them on a blanket together and they seemed to be having a good time.
Max is a month older than Brennan, but Brennan still jumped out to an early lead in the wrestling match by grabbing Max's ear.
"Ow! That hurts!"
"I'm free!"
"Now it's your turn, buster!"
Brennan is down for the count (but doesn't seem to mind so much).
We broke up the brawlers, but Max still felt like taunting Brennan with some of his four-month-old skills, like holding his head up. (Brennan will get there very shortly!)
Max then proceeded to amaze us all by rolling over for the very first time!

Mom and Dad were very proud! (And thanks to Heather and Ryan for hosting!)

Max eats rice

2009-09-05T16:04:00.006-05:00

We have started Max on solid foods! We've decided that it's time to start trying him out with some yummy (or not) rice cereal. I fed Max the cereal mixed with a lot of water. (Does a precipitate count as a solid?)A lot got on his bib and elsewhere, but we had lots of fun.Katie fed him some cereal on another day and made it thicker. All the better to stick to his face!

Parental Protection Refex

2009-09-03T11:44:00.007-05:00

Today at work I was researching the tissue origins of different cell culture systems that we have available to use in the lab. "Cell culture" refers to the process by which we can take mammalian cells and grow them in petri dishes. Mammalian cells are much more complicated to grow than bacteria, and the best growing cells are usually derived from tumors, which have already escaped the normal growth inhibition experienced by most cells in the body.I study the brain, so I was looking up various cell lines derived from brain tumors. For extra background, I looked up information about the cancers on Wikipedia. Neuroblastoma and medulloblastoma are particularly nasty brain tumors that appear most often in children.My career in medical research often requires me to read horrid descriptions of truly awful diseases, and I have become impervious to emotional reactions of any kind when reading about diseases. Today, though, I was gripped with horror as I read the descriptions. Instead of calling up my standard mental image of a human brain to localize the various abnormalities, I found myself imagining the crippling cancers growing inside the brain of my five-month-old son. Even as I type this, I can't seem to escape the vivid (to me, anyway) image of a medulloblastoma growing inside of Max's fourth ventricle.I've written about the happier face of this protective instinct in myself. I guess the protective instinct has an anxious side that even jaded scientists like I am not immune to. I guess I'll reassure myself with lots of smiling pictures of my adorable (and, thank goodness, cancer-free) baby boy.

2009 Prognostication Quiz: Post 9 of 14, Golf

2009-08-17T11:06:00.003-05:00

Tiger Woods came very close, but lost the PGA Championship this past weekend. He was leading by two strokes going in to the final day, and he had never relinquished such a lead in his past. This time, Y. E. Yang outplayed Tiger and won the PGA Championship. This is as close as Tiger came to winning a Major this year. In the end, he was shut out for 2009.

That means that the answer to Question 9 of the 2009 Prognostication Quiz is E. Tiger will win no Championships. Eleven people wished lots of bogies on Tiger and advance one point:

Ted
Pete C.
Matthew
Grant
Katie
Larry
Michael
Adrian
Missy
Rob
Cameron

This breaks the tie between the husband and wife previously atop the leader board: Ted now advances to six points, while Zoe stays behind at five points. Pete C. and Matthew also advance to join Zoe in a tie for second place.

Leader board

6 Ted
5 Pete C.
5 Zoe
5 Matthew
4 Grant
4 Tina
4 Katie
4 Stephanie
4 Ben
3 Ekrem
3 Pamela
3 Liz
3 Jeremiah
3 Larry
3 Leanne
3 Heather
3 Peter M.
3 Gloria
3 Michael
3 Kevin
3 Jeff B.
3 Jan
3 Marcus
3 Adrian

A whopping 10 people were eliminated by guessing Tiger would do better than he did:
Ryan
Russell
Greg
Valerie
Rachel F.
Eric
Sarah
Zhiqi
and finally, Janet and Jeff C., the counterpart marriage standing in marked contrast with Ted and Zoe at the top.

That's 13 people total that have been mathematically eliminated, or 30% of the field. Just five questions left for the other 70%!

Question 10 Update:
Next up is the Nobel Peace Prize, which will be announced at 4 a.m. CDT on Friday, October 9. Katie and Stephanie supported Rights; Pete C. and Grant chose a geographical region; Zoe, Tina, and Ben wanted Development; and skeptics Ted and Matthew opined "none of the above."

Question 12 Update:
Hello Hurricane Bill! The first hurricane of the 2009 season. By this point last year, we'd already had two hurricanes, though. This looks like a slow year for hurricanes. Grant and Tina are hoping for 6 or 7 hurricanes (Answer B), while Ted, Zoe, Katie, and Ben are hoping for 8 or 9 (Answer C).

Question 13 Update:
The Dow Jones is smack in the middle of Answer D, 9,000 to 9,500; Pete C. and Grant would be happy if it stayed there. Leading economic indicators continue to suggest that the economy continues strengthening, though, so we might get over the 9,500 mark and into Answer E, which would reward the prescience of Ted, Katie, and Ben. Matthew is hoping for over 10,000, while Stephanie hopes it dips below 9,000.

Katie's Cute Beet-Rats

2009-08-16T11:43:00.013-05:00

We are in the habit of keeping the camera nearby and at the ready in case Max does cute things that need to be recorded. Katie was preparing some beets for our dinner and I guess she decided that the beets were doing lots of cute things. She deemed them worth of an entire photo essay:

Reading over my shoulder, Katie exclaimed, "I didn't think they were cute! I thought they looked like rats!"

She likes how she made this one bleed:

Whew! That was scary!

Max the Mama's Boy

2009-08-09T15:15:00.010-05:00

Today is Max's third birthday! Happy third birthday to Max!
(This is, of course, only true for the cardinal sense of third, i.e. he is one-third of a year old. It is not true for the ordinal sense of third in that Max has not had his first or second birthday yet.)I've mentioned before that at two months, Max turned from a baby who almost never cried to a rather fussy baby. That trend has continued, sadly, and has taken some sad turns. First is that Max is not the best napper. When he naps like the books say he is supposed to, he is usually quite happy and contented in between. The problem is that he hates napping for some reason. Left to his own devices he will take 30-minute catnaps and then rub his sleepy red eyes and cry the rest of the time. Katie can extend his naps to a more helpful two hours but only so long as she is holding him. If she puts him down in any of the dark, comfortable, climate-controlled sleeping spaces that we have in the house (even the ones that vibrate), he wakes up and starts crying again.The worst part is that I am not an equivalent in this regard. Max has become more and more of a Mama's boy over the past two months. Sometimes he will cry nonstop for me for thirty minutes while I try rocking, swaddling, unswaddling, bouncing, cooing, singing (usually he's partial to Irish ballads), and changing position every ten seconds. Katie finally gets so depressed that he's crying that she will come over and take him from me and he instantly calms down and soon thereafter falls asleep.This is actually rather sad for both of us. Katie wishes that Max were more calmed by me so that she could hand him off every now and again to take a shower or read some email or just sit and relax for a bit. Meanwhile, I turn green with envy when Max sleeps so peacefully in her arms while I am cold comfort at best.It's not completely one-sided, anyway. When I get home from work and greet Max with a cheerful "Hello, Baby," for example, he always gives me a huge smile. He likes Daddy plenty, as long as he doesn't have to spend too much time in my dolorous arms.

Max's Kicking Game

2009-07-13T15:16:00.003-05:00

Max's favorite new game is to lie in his activity gym and kick. When I set him up correctly, a bulls-eye kick does two things: it activates the shake sensor on the music to advance to the next track, and it shakes the rattle above his head. I was getting some pretty big smiles, which prompted me to take this video, but Max just had one big smile left for the video camera. It happens fifteen seconds in. After that he does lots more kicking, but he's more taciturn.

Dinosaur Picnic and Dinosaur Summer

2009-07-12T12:28:00.002-05:00

Here's a fun video of Max playing with his mother and maternal grandparents. It starts with Katie demonstrating her special kiss that she shares with Max. (She touches noses, then each cheek, before finishing off with a big smooch on the lips.) Then the three of them delight Max with fun noises and more kisses. Max flashes his winning smile for the camera.

Here are some longer videos of Grandpa telling Max two magical stories that he used to tell to Katie and Laura when they were small. First is Dinosaur Picnic:

For an interlude, we have a cute story about Katie. When Katie's father initially told Katie these stories, she took them to be gospel truth. When her teacher said one day in school that no one had ever seen a dinosaur, Katie helpfully explained that her father had seen lots of them when he was a boy. Katie suffered her classmates' laughter and stayed angry at her parents for some time!

Max started to fuss a bit at the end of the previous video, preventing the telling of the sequel. Eventually Max calmed down and Grandpa was able to relate the tale of Dinosaur Summer:

Birdwatching in Black Dog Preserve

2009-07-10T16:13:00.009-05:00

I went birdwatching for several hours last Friday morning and early afternoon. Katie had visitors all day and very graciously watched Max while I sneaked away for some R&R (refresh and rejuvenate) time.

The Black Dog Reserve is part of the nearby National Wildlife Refuge that runs along the Minnesota River.

It's been a while since I last posted on my life goals, but I've added on in the interim. It was as I was realizing how much I enjoy traveling but that I don't have the ability to do it as much as I'd like. I thought it would be good to add an "outdoors" life goal that I could accomplish without traveling very far. I decided that birdwatching would be nice. There are 312 species of birds that one can expect to spot in Minnesota. I figured I'd set a goal at 300 bird species that I would like to spot and positively identify in the wild.

The reserve is half prairie and half marsh. It was a coolish late morning, and the birds were out in great number. It was very exciting! Since I started my birdwatching goal, I have never been in a place so teeming with birds. Over the few hours I spent, I spotted 16 species I could identify confidently (including 4 species previously not previously seen by me) as well as four birds that were clearly different but that I didn't get a good enough glimpse of to identify for sure (though I have guesses).

Prairie:

Beaver lodge in the marsh:

12 of the 16 species were ones I'd seen before:
Mourning Dove
Downy Woodpecker
Barn Swallow
Black-capped Chickadee
American Robin
Gray Catbird
European Starling
Indigo Bunting
Red-winged Blackbird
Common Grackle
Brown-headed Cowbird
American Goldfinch

Here's a Cowbird sitting in the same tree with a Bunting:

Four species were new to me (bringing me to 45 total since I started the goal last year):
Least Flycatcher
Yellow Warbler
Common Yellowthroat
Song Sparrow

Perceivable Joys:

1. Yellow

I see a good amount of red (Northern Cardinal) and blue (Indigo Bunting) along the river and deciduous habitats where I spend most of my time, but I don't see much yellow. Here the most common three birds I saw were bright yellow. American GoldfinchYellow WarblerCommon Yellowthroat

2. Caterwauls

I've viewed Gray Catbirds before, but never heard their supposed "catlike" calls. I have heard them singing, which sounds quite nice. On this hike, I heard one making the eerie catcalls that gave the bird its name. It sounds dead-on like a cat in great pain. I wish I'd been quick enough to take a video.

3. Harrassment

As I was standing and admiring the marsh at one point, one bird started harassing me. I was buzzed over and over by one crazy Red Winged Blackbird. I guess I got too close to his nest and he thought he would try to scare me out of eating his children.

Max the Model

2009-07-06T17:19:00.012-05:00

Katie sometimes talks to Max about all the things he can grow up to be. "Will you grow up to be a scientist like Daddy, or a lawyer like Mommy?" she will query. In recent days, though, we think Max might aspire to be a model. He LOVES the camera. Point it in his direction, and he is mesmerized by the big lens, giving it a big smile. He will sit for long series of photographs, changing his expressions constantly so we'll be sure to get a good one.

This is Katie's recent favorite series (mostly because she thinks he looks so cute in the outfit):

This is my favorite series, based purely on the dynamic range of emotions that Max is capable of. I am especially fond of the last picture.

So cute!

Baby Naps and Daddy Reads

2009-06-26T12:20:00.012-05:00

I get the 6-9 am shift with Max while Katie sleeps. He often takes one nap during that period, and I get a little reading done. This past week I read Fyodor Dostoyevsky's Notes from Underground and Somerset Maugham's The Moon and Sixpence.

I might consider doing more productive things (washing dishes or cleaning some of Max's interminable spit-up cloths), but Max is very sly. He senses if I am not sitting next to him while he naps. I don't know if he does this by smell or by cracking open his eyes every now and again. If I leave him while he naps, he wakes up within ten or fifteen minutes in order to gently explain his disapproval to me. If I sit with him and rock his bouncy chair (maybe that's how he knows that I'm there), he will nap for 45 minutes or an hour.

Here's Max in his favorite napping spot, the vibrating bouncy chair:
My favorite photos of Max are the close-ups:So cute!

Katie's Baby Shower, Part 2

2009-06-20T15:34:00.003-05:00

Liz was the game mistress at the baby shower. Above, she is holding the celebrity baby quiz, with celebrity pictures (along with a picture of my father and Katie's mother) on one side, and pictures of celebrity babies (along with baby pictures of Katie and me).

The coup de grace, however, was her Baby Androeke Prognostication Quiz, which was modeled on the prognostication quizzes that I've run over the past couple years. Baby Androeke is the best amalgam of Katie's and my last names that we considered doing (for 30 or 40 nanoseconds) instead of choosing one name or the other for Max.

Sixteen people entered the quiz, with a prize promised for the winner.

Baby Androeke Prognostication Quiz

Question 1. Only 5% of babies are born on their due date. 50% are born within a week of that date, and 90% are born within two weeks of that date. Baby Androeke will be born:
a. before the due date (April 19)
b. on the due date
c. between April 20 and April 23
d. after April 23

Max was WAY early, which is especially unusual for a first baby. He was born on April 9, making the answer A. Six people got this correct, including both parents.

Question 2. 31% of all babies are born via Ceasarean-section. 6% of all births are “assisted” with a vacuum or forceps. Baby Androeke will be born:
a. vaginally w/o tools
b. vaginally with vacuum or forceps
c. via C-section
d. Other

The answer (somewhat sadly) is C. Interestingly, only one person (Laura P.) guessed C. Was this because people didn't want to wish bad things on Katie? Or because everyone had such great faith in her birth canal? In their avoidance of C, two people even picked D, even though I can't think of what "other" might entail. (Heather M. picked D and also explained what she was predicting: via stork.)

Question 3. The average American baby weighs 7.6 pounds. Baby Androeke will weigh:
a. Less than 7 pounds
b. 7 pounds - 8 pounds
c. 8 pounds – 8.5 pounds
d. More than 8.5 pounds

Four people correctly guessed that Max would weigh 8 pounds, 5.3 ounces at birth for answer C.

Question 4. The average baby is 20.16 inches at full term. I predict Baby Androeke’s length will be:
a. 20 inches or less
b. 20.1 -21 inches
c. 21.1 -22 inches
d. longer than 22 inches

Four people also correctly guessed that Max would be 21 inches long at birth, for answer B. Max's parents guessed that he would be a big baby (D on 3, D on 4), but the early delivery thwarted those answers!

Question 5. During the labor/delivery, Katie will shout at Michael or the nurse/doctor:
a. Get me a pear, walnut and cheese salad, STAT!
b. Cut HIS perineum!
c. You’re changing all the diapers dammit!
d. Why didn’t you get your haircut?!
e. Do NOT write about this on the blog…

No one got this question right, as Katie avoided all five catchphrases. The best write-in guess was "Get out! Get out, all of you! I'm going to do this by myself!" The actual answer is "Will you two be quiet, PLEASE!" Katie directed that at the nurse and me as we were trying say nice calm things to her as she was starting her C-section. She (poor thing) was trying to concentrate so as to avoid throwing up (again).

Question 6. Katie will vomit at some point during labor and delivery:
a. True
b. False

Yes, the answer is A. People really know Katie, because a full 12 people predicted she would toss her lunch. Only in her case, it wasn't lunch: it was a green popsicle. The doctor forbade her from having anything to eat or drink except ice chips. Katie quickly countermanded that order and had me sneak her glasses of water. Then she managed con a nurse to bring her a popsicle. When (as the doctor predicted) she vomited, it was bright neon green, and got all over her face as I wiped her face clean. The doctor (who was right there) must have understood what happened, but said nothing. I wonder if the friendly nurse met with any repercussions.

Question 7. Katie and Michael will:
a. Have a name picked out before the baby is born; or
b. Wait until they see the baby to choose his name.

Only four people chose B, correctly predicting that we would not have our act together. Thanks to the other twelve who thought we'd be prepared. Sorry to let you down.

Question 8. What will Katie and Michael name the baby?

I was the only one who got this right. You may think that I knew what the answer would be and so it shouldn't count, but at the time our top choice was Dashiell. At least one person was privy to this information and put that down as her answer. I started writing Dashiell as my guess, too, before deciding (correctly, it turns out) that Katie would decide in the end that she wanted what was then our second-choice name, Maxwell. For reasons that are best known by her, Katie guessed that we would name the child Marvin, even though she never mentioned that name again to anyone, as far as I know. (It never made it on to the list of names that we chose from.)

And the winner is . . .

. . . Christy S! She got half of the questions right (1, 3, 4, and 6). Honorable mention goes to Laura P., who got three questions right (2, 3, and 6). Everyone else scored either one or two. Talk to Liz to collect your well-deserved prize!

Katie's Baby Shower, part 1

2009-06-18T21:02:00.008-05:00

Katie's good friends Liz and Beth threw us a wonderful co-ed baby shower back in February. We were in "stealth mode" until birth with regard to blogging about the baby, so I didn't blog about it at the time. But a big thanks now to everyone who came and gave us all the wonderful gifts!

A surfeit of beautifully wrapped presents!

Michael and Katie embarrassed by everyone being so nice (of course, embarrassment does not prevent Michael from simultaneously dishing himself some food):

Maria evades bedtime in order to help unwrap:

Michael fondles the "My Breast Friend" nursing pillow while Katie is not looking:

Thanks to all the wonderful people!

2009 Prognostication Quiz: Posts 7 and 8 of 14, Hockey and Hoops

2009-06-15T17:10:00.004-05:00

In quick succession, the Pittsburgh Penguins won the Stanley Cup and the Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA Championship. That means that the 2009 Prognostication Quiz passes the halfway mark! The answer to Question 7 is E. Another Eastern Conference Team, and the answer to Question 8 is C. Los Angeles Lakers.

Penguin peeps

Ted
Matthew
Ben
Liz
Marcus
Sarah
Jeff C.

Laker lasses & laddies

Zoe
Ben
Grant
Pamela
Jeff B.
Peter M.
Megan
Eric
Cameron
Greg

Notable performances

The big change on the leader board is that Ted and Zoe (a couple in real life) have clawed their way to the top. Ted predicted the Penguins triumph, while Zoe was rooting for the Lakers. Now they share the overall lead with 5 points.

I hope that they don't stay together at the top, since they also happened to choose exactly the same tiebreaker (aww, how cute!) - 59.0 inches of snow in Minnesota. Some separation may happen already in the question 9. Zoe is predicting that Tiger will win the US Open this coming weekend. Ted is cautiously predicting Tiger will be shut out of major championships this year.

Also, snaps to Ben, who is 3-for-3 since April, including both hockey and basketball.

Leaderboard

5 Zoe
5 Ted
4 Pete C.
4 Tina
4 Stephanie
4 Matthew
4 Ben
3 Grant
3 Leanne
3 Katie
3 Pamela
3 Heather
3 Liz
3 Kevin
3 Ekrem
3 Jeremiah
3 Gloria
3 Jan
3 Jeff B.
3 Peter M.
3 Marcus

Congratulations to Eric, Cameron, Jeff C. and Greg for getting their first point of the year! That leaves just one person alone in the basement with no points: Rachel H. Sadly, her guesses on questions 9, 12, and 14 are looking unlikely. That leaves the relative toss-ups of questions 10 and 11 or her prediction of D on question 13 (she'll advance if the Dow stays where it is right now) as her best chance to avoid being blanked for the year.

Rachel H. and Janette have also joined Cameron in being mathematically eliminated from winning the Quiz. Better luck next year!

Maxwell turns Fussy

2009-06-14T14:52:00.008-05:00

Max was not a very fussy baby for his first eight weeks. He would complain sometimes when we weren't holding him (he thought we were being tortuously unfair when we tried to have him sleep in his cradle), but he was very easy to comfort just by holding him or feeding him.

In the past week he's been incredibly fussy. This is, interestingly, right on time according to all the baby books. He now will burst into hysterical screaming with no warning whatsoever. He will also cry for long periods of time despite being held, cooed at, sung to, bounced, rocked, cradled, swaddled, unswaddled, swung, vibrated, or (Katie's specialty) dancing to bad 80's music.

Max sucking his thumb (for the first time that we noticed):
In orange stripes:
Lest you worry, the baby does actually smile occasionaly:
Check out our fashion shorts for a day outside in the warm weather!
Here's a close-up of the baby's hot outfit:
And finally, Mom and Baby get to go outside!

Second Anniversary

2009-06-10T12:06:00.002-05:00

Katie and I had our second anniversary yesterday. We celebrated over the weekend with dinner at Heartland, our favorite fancy restaurant.

I have an anniversary surprise for Katie that I'm posting here. In November of 2006, I lost my camera. Years later I found it again, and downloaded what was on the disk. I found this nice piece of performance art that I painted into the wall of the bedroom of the house I owned in Brooklyn Park before I moved in with Katie. We had been dating for six months when the performance piece took place and were three months from my proposal of marriage:

Max's First Visitors, Friends Edition

2009-06-02T11:44:00.018-05:00

Thanks to all our wonderful local friends who helped us out by bringing food and holding Max for a while!

Heidi
Madeleine
Rachel
Beth
Liz and Jeff
Jenny
Ryan
Ted
Zoe
Christy
Gabe
Courtney
Beth
Heather
Ryan
Heather

Max's First Visitors, Family Edition

2009-06-01T21:57:00.014-05:00

Max has been blessed with lots of visitors who want to hold him! We've taken lots of pictures. I've organized them genetically. (Percentages indicate shared identity by descent, not by state.)

Sharing 25% of Max's DNA (via Katie)

June (maternal grandmother)
Tom (maternal grandfather)
Laura (maternal aunt)

Sharing 25% of Max's DNA (via Michael)

Cherie (paternal grandmother)
Larry (paternal grandfather)
Missy (paternal aunt)
Tina (paternal aunt)
Jeremiah (paternal uncle)

Sharing 6.25% of Max's DNA

Becky (paternal first cousin once removed)

Sharing 0% of Max's DNA (but still family!)

Kathy (maternal great aunt)

Michael reads to Max

2009-05-27T00:46:00.003-05:00

I wrote earlier about how I've been reading early epic poetry to Max to lull him to sleep. Katie took video of me reading to him recently! Here is the text, for those who want to read along. (In the scene, the wily deity Phoebus Apollo is aiding and inciting Hector and his Trojans to kill a bunch of Greeks):

As long as Phoebus bore unmoved the shield,
Sat doubtful conquest hovering o'er the field;
But when aloft he shakes it in the skies,
Shouts in their ears, and lightens in their eyes,
Deep horror seizes every Grecian breast,
Their force is humbled, and their fear confess'd.
So flies a herd of oxen, scatter'd wide,
No swain to guard them, and no day to guide,
When two fell lions from the mountain come,
And spread the carnage through the shady gloom.
Impending Phoebus pours around them fear,
And Troy and Hector thunder in the rear.
Heaps fall on heaps: the slaughter Hector leads,
First great Arcesilas, then Stichius bleeds;
One to the bold Boeotians ever dear,
And one Menestheus' friend and famed compeer.
Medon and Iasus, Æneas sped;
This sprang from Phelus, and the Athenians led;
But hapless Medon from Oileus came;
Him Ajax honour'd with a brother's name,
Though born of lawless love: from home expell'd,
A banish'd man, in Phylace he dwell'd,
Press'd by the vengeance of an angry wife;
Troy ends at last his labours and his life.
Mecystes next Polydamas o'erthrew;
And thee, brave Clonius, great Agenor slew.
By Paris, Deiochus inglorious dies,
Pierced through the shoulder as he basely flies.
Polites' arm laid Echius on the plain;
Stretch'd on one heap, the victors spoil the slain.

I was tripped up by many of the heroes' names, which need to be read with the right number of syllables and emphasis on the correct syllable in order to remain iambic pentameter. I failed miserably. Max, bless his heart, pretends not to notice my egregious failings. (I hope that continues.)